Ulster Senior Football Championship quarter-final: Armagh v Antrim (Saturday, Box-It Athletic Grounds, 5pm, live on BBC NI – extra-time and penalties if required)
THIS is a game Armagh are expected to win comfortably on home soil and they will want to get over the line and move on with the minimum of drama.
Meanwhile, underdogs Antrim have nothing to lose. Nothing is expected of them. If they are in touch at half time. Good. If they are still in it after 50 minutes. Great. If they’re in with a shout after an hour. Fantastic. Nobody expects the Saffrons to beat a side that came within a whisker of the All-Ireland semi-finals last year.
And they shouldn’t, but…
The one outstanding result from Antrim’s season so far that will (or should) make Armagh wary was their victory against Cavan. To put it in context, the previous weekend the Saffrons had been embarrassed by Westmeath in Mullingar. Beat out the proverbial gate, they lost by 31 points which really is U11 stuff.
The following weekend unbeaten Cavan (perhaps complacent with promotion almost assured) arrived at Corrigan Park expecting an easy touch. They didn’t get it - Antrim led by 10 points at one stage and eventually won by two.
The Saffrons can also point out encouraging displays against Down (in Newry) and Fermanagh (in Belfast) but they lost both of those at the death by a point. It was the Cavan win kept them in Division Three and it should be a warning to Armagh that, on their day and at their best, this Antrim side is capable of causing an upset, especially if their opponents take them for granted.
And they have an experienced schemer in their dugout in Andy McEntee. During his six years as Meath manager, McEntee guided the Royals to a six-point win over a Kieran McGeeney Armagh side that included Mackin, McKay, Grugan, Campbell, Forker, Hall, McCabe, Burns, Morgan and Nugent.
All of the above will be involved tomorrow but there is a rookie-look about the squad McGeeney named for this Ulster opener.
Armagh will have the latest in a series of new midfield pairings with Clan na Gael’s Shane McPartlan named to make his Championship debut alongside Maghery’s Ben Crealey who didn’t see a single minute of action in the League.
Neither did James Morgan who is named to start at corner-back. His return adds experience to Armagh’s defence but the Orchard county are without their best two performers in the League campaign – Rian O’Neill and Andrew Murnin.
Both are ruled out with injuries and their absence is a serious blow to Armagh and a serious boost for Antrim.
Antrim have always had talented footballers in their teams but they didn’t have the physicality to last in the Championship against one of the big guns. The Saffrons are more robust these days but physical sides normally suit Armagh who at their best are adept at turning the ball over and getting forward fast and in numbers.
Two issues undermined Armagh’s attacking returns in this year’s League. They lacked an out-and-out forward because everyone, including Rian O’Neill, was asked to do so much defensive work, and secondly, the creative presence they had in the old centre half-forward area last season wasn’t there.
Defensively they were solid but their scoring totals just weren’t enough to win tight games and there were just two goals and both of them were down to opposition goalkeeping mistakes.
When these counties last met in the Championship two years’ ago, Armagh led by just two points at half-time. Antrim kept the ball and hung in there but after Rian O’Neill scored a penalty Armagh began to pull away and when the Saffrons had to push out they killed them off with two more second half goals.
The Antrim defence had the worst record in the entire League. They conceded a whopping 15-113 over seven games (over 22 points a game) and, even without O’Neill and Murnin, Armagh have the forwards in Conor Turbitt and Stefan Campbell and a supporting cast of Rory Grugan, Jason Duffy and Tiernan Kelly to exploit that and the Saffrons will be most vulnerable when they push out and look to attack.
If the Antrim side that beat Cavan turns up we could have a game on our hands against an Orchard outfit that is not at full strength and is struggling for form and confidence.
That said, everything points to an Armagh win and their superior quality across the pitch should get them over the line with half-a-dozen points to spare.
Key Battle
Conor Turbitt (Armagh) v Peter Healy (Antrim)
IN the absence of Rian O’Neill, Turbitt and Stefan Campbell are Armagh’s most likely match-winners. Turbitt is direct and quick and he gave the Tyrone defence a torrid time of it when Armagh finally found some attacking fluency in their final game of the ill-fated League campaign.
The Clann Eireann forward was outstanding, particularly in the first half, and he could smell blood early on if Antrim don’t find a way to plug up the holes that have sprung open so often in their defence.
Skipper Healy is experienced and determined and, if his team-mates do their job out the field and put pressure on the ball, he can be relied upon to do his by sticking tight to ‘Turbo’. He’ll need to.
Tactical Take
Antrim
IT might take an hour for a football match to break out and that’s exactly what Antrim will want. The longer the visitors can keep it tight, the better their chances of causing an upset become. They will pack their defence and look to draw Armagh – who’ll want to impress in front of another big crowd at the Athletic Grounds – on to them.
If they turn the ball over they can be route-one direct and they have the pace and the runners to get them up the field and in their two Ruairi McCanns (one from Aghagallon, the other from the Creggan club) and Odhran Eastwood they have scoring threats.
Possession will be key until the final quarter and McCann (the Aghagallon one) will be a handy option on the edge of the square. Former rugby star Joseph Finnegan could be detailed to block the attacking threat of Armagh goalkeeper Ethan Rafferty. With Patrick McBride and Ryan Murray named among the subs (there could yet be changes to the starting line-up) Antrim also have options on the bench.
Armagh
How do Armagh play this one? Man-for-man they have the edge in most areas but does Kieran McGeeney change tactics from the League? Will he push up on the Antrim kick-outs? McGeeney hasn’t been able to put out at settled midfield pair all season and Ben Crealey returns tomorrow but Armagh are without their two best players from the League in Rian O’Neill and Andrew Murnin.
It’s a safe bet that the home side will do what they’ve been doing - get behind the ball, win it and then look to transition into attack – but they’ll need to do it better.
Poor finishing has been a major issue for them this year and they’ll need to improve on it against an Antrim defence that has been less than solid all season.
