PEOPLE have been talking about Donaldson’s ‘Trimble moment’ for weeks. It’s come and gone. With his usual lack of political judgement and timing, he’s got himself into a fix again.
It’s perfectly clear from his tortuous, lacklustre lecture on Saturday that he wants back to Stormont. It’s also clear from the content of his address that he’s now negotiating with his own hardliners and backwoodsmen rather than with the British.
In the case of the British we know the outcome. They’ve said it publicly several times. The Windsor Framework and the Irish Sea border are here to stay. Donaldson’s problem is how to square administering it with strong, emotional and irrational opposition in his own party.
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Poor, gormless Doug Beattie, the NIO’s great red, white and blue hope, has tried desperately to help Donaldson in this respect, supporting his speech and its emphasis on devolution. Does Beattie’s support – essentially, “I told you you were wrong” – actually not make it more difficult for Donaldson?
Beattie’s gloss on the Windsor Framework, talking about making the “green lane disappear” – wishful thinking – isn’t much help either. What about the customs sheds? Instead, what may happen is companies in England won’t be bothered to join the new version of the trusted trader scheme for easier access to the north because it’s not worth the trouble for a fraction of their sales.
Our proconsul was bigging up the 1,600 companies who have ‘already’ signed up. Big deal. Does he know there are hundreds of thousands of companies in Britain? Does he care?
Donaldson had ample opportunities to activate his ‘Trimble moment’ this year. He’s very experienced in its activation. After all, he was on the receiving end of the first Trimble moment when Trimble stood up to him and faced him down on Good Friday 1998.
You’ll notice that, being Donaldson, he dithered until the very last minute before walking out on his party leader. Donaldson then led a fifth column in the party for a few years until Trimble gave him and a couple of others, including Foster, the heave-ho in 2003 – an ‘ultimatum’, Donaldson called it. Trimble of course was made of sterner stuff than Donaldson. He didn’t mind being disliked and dislikeable. He didn’t even seem to notice.
Too weak to face down his opponents and having missed several opportunities the British provided for him, Donaldson is now reduced to pleading and wheedling.
Extolling the advantages of devolution wasn’t very convincing for MPs like Wilson who have repeatedly said they will not countenance operating the Irish Sea border even though, being in Westminster, they won’t be. The extent of opposition in the DUP will have been obvious to Donaldson in the way the section of his speech in which he said “when [our system of government] returns” was received: no applause. Rather, it's reported ‘muttering’ in the audience.
Donaldson’s dithering has strengthened and emboldened his party opponents. His email in August castigating members who briefed the media against him and party policy was not followed up with any action. On the contrary, remarks by Dodds and Wilson had already successfully brought him up short when they resurrected his ‘seven tests’ and reminded him none of them had been met, so how could he therefore advocate a return to Stormont?
There’s a further problem for Donaldson if he delays any longer a return to Stormont to placate his party hardliners. In the run-up to a British general election next year, most likely October, Donaldson’s ill-advised street demonstrations and marches in 2021 will come back to bite him. Those he brought out onto the streets and encouraged to protest against the Irish Sea border he left on the streets when he entered into endless inconclusive months of fruitless negotiations with the British. Now taken over by unelected loyalist voices, the demonstrators are likely to organise their own demonstrations against Donaldson to remind him of his words.
Equally Jim Allister will not be silent. For Allister, a return to Stormont is not only objectionable because of the protocol, modified as it may be, but it is also unconscionable because there will be a Sinn Féin First Minister, a serious obstacle for many unionists that hasn’t gone away you know.
Donaldson may appeal for illusory unionist unity all he wants, but his own political misjudgements have exacerbated unionism division.
