Accepting the Windsor Framework and returning to Stormont are two different things and it is a mistake to assume the DUP must do both.
The assumption is understandable, as all Stormont deals to date have followed a similar pattern. No matter how numerous and poisonous the disputes behind a political crisis, it ends with everyone declaring everything is resolved and skipping into a shiny, shared future. When Stormont was restored after the St Andrews Agreement, an actual choir of children sang – angels were apparently unavailable.
Putting a positive spin on the framework, with suitable assurances from London, has clearly been the DUP’s Plan A. The party tried to do the same with the protocol, briefly describing it as part of a “gateway of opportunity”, until a 2021 opinion poll showed voters switching to the TUV.
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But a Windsorsceptic return to Stormont is perfectly possible and has several arguments in its favour.
The framework is a mess, despite the choirs that have sung its praises, with endless problems, complexities, contradictions and potential for controversy. Most of the official explanations made for its operation are misleading simplifications; some are outright falsehoods.
There should be plenty of opportunities over the coming months and years for the DUP to say ‘we told you so’. The party could do this at Stormont while still standing aloof if London takes back the devolved powers necessary to implement some aspects of the framework, such as border inspection posts. The government has said it will do this imminently – perhaps less of a threat than a promise.
The DUP is also helped by being Stormont’s second-largest party, enabling it to duck out of the appearance of being in charge, although it may struggle to appreciate this advantage.
Perversely, the biggest problem with a Windsorsceptic stance is that the framework’s failings may not be obvious enough to the public. The extra costs and administrative burdens it imposes will be hard to discern precisely because they are so widespread: nearly everything will get a bit more expensive and awkward, against a background of general inflation. However, most people will be spared the paperwork and might never notice the framework, were it not for occasional nuisances with online shopping.
Taking a negative position tends to be defeatist and depressing, almost by definition. This is unattractive and unsustainable for any party that aspires to a mainstream role in office.
The framework is not going to be renegotiated, certainly at unionism’s behest, but there is still a way to reject it that can be presented as hopeful and realistic. Labour should be in power by late next year, aiming for a closer alignment with Europe. The UK does not have to rejoin the EU single market for large chunks of the sea border to fall away. Relatively straightforward and politically plausible changes, such as an enhanced veterinary agreement, would be a significant start.
Nor need the framework be renegotiated. It allows itself to be superseded in whole or in part by any other deal that achieves the same objectives. This also protects the continuity needed by businesses and any investors lured in by the framework’s alleged benefits. Dual-market access (such as it is) is secure and can only improve.
There is no point waiting outside Stormont for all this to happen if it is going to happen regardless. The only excuse for a continued DUP boycott would be pride.
Hoping a Labour government will deliver a soft Brexit, after propping up a Conservative government to deliver a hard Brexit, would be an audacious reversal. But it would be a less fundamental U-turn than the DUP performed at St Andrews, or Sinn Féin performs every time it walks into Stormont. It would be on a par with the U-turn Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has performed by accepting Brexit.
The DUP could pull it off, if it still has the nerve to try.
