Ben Collins is someone from a unionist background who now believes that the future is Irish reunification.
He has written two books on the subject: ‘Irish Unity: Time to Prepare’, and ‘The Irish Unity Dividend’ which will be published in September.
Writing earlier this month in The Irish Times’ Common Ground series, Collins addressed his comments to those who believe the north is better off as it is and want to stay part of the UK.
Perhaps it is because in his career he has worked in Edinburgh, Cardiff and Dublin, before returning to Belfast, that he has a wider perspective.
For Collins, Irish unity is not about romantic idealism of “a fourth green field”. It’s “not about history, posterity, echoes of the past”.
For him, it’s “what will offer the best quality of life for everyone living across this island”.
He asks unionists to consider: “Is this as good as it gets? Are you living in Nirvana now or do you envisage that things will improve? If you think things will improve, how is that going to happen?”
As Collins points out: “Every metric measuring living standards today – life expectancy, waiting lists for surgery, education standards and job prospects – shows that the south today outperforms the north.
“In a world where the all-island economy grows, the place that is now Northern Ireland can be a vitally necessary part of that engine with the chance of being part of one of Europe’s fastest-growing economies.”
The north is a small fraction of the UK’s population, does not play a part in UK politics (unless as a Conservative Party puppet from time to time), does not vote for any party that might form a government, and is ignored when Westminster calculates what is in ‘the national interest’.
However, as Collins points out, while the north is not part of Britain – the other island – “it is a significant part, a very significant part, of the island of Ireland”.
Unionists should prepare to play their political part in that. They should prepare for the referendum that is inevitable.
Of course most unionists will pay no attention to what Collins writes. They take advice from former unionists even less kindly than they do exhortation from nationalists.
Their leaders, crouched in their ever-contracting political space, pretend that the future will be the same as the past, so there’s no need to do anything.
If the record of unionist leaders – no, nay, never – is anything to go by, they will maintain this defensive crouch despite the incontrovertible evidence of the last 40 years that change is accelerating.
Have they failed to notice that change happens regardless, without them?
The largest party, the DUP, lives in a curious, contradictory place where most of them dislike the Good Friday Agreement and work to frustrate its functions, yet at the same time regard it as a settlement. It isn’t.
Writing last month, Colum Eastwood said: “The Good Friday Agreement, easily and falsely interpreted as a full stop in conversations about the future, was in fact the beginning of the next paragraph in our island’s story.”
Its institutions weren’t created “to contain or diminish the campaign to unite Ireland… but as a mechanism to advance our ambitions”.
What unionists haven’t come to terms with is that at some point in the future, some ‘here today, gone tomorrow’, proconsul will call a referendum as required.
It will be without consideration for the concerns or demands of unionism; they no longer call the shots.
Unionists don’t understand that when that time comes, they will have already lost the referendum.
It will be called, after consultation with the Irish government, when, as the GFA stipulates, “it seems likely… a majority voting would express a wish… to form part of a united Ireland”.
The British prime minister at that time will already have taken the momentous decision to end the United Kingdom and will have been as certain as possible that will be the result of the referendum.
Unionists of course will be aghast and demoralised because in answering questions from the media, that prime minister will have solemnly indicated that s/he is prepared to cut the north adrift (powerfully resisting the urge to hoist an arm in the air and shout “Yo!”) and not interfere in the expected outcome.
The question is at what stage before the referendum unionists will decide to address the ultimate historic questions they face: what are they going to do to become reconciled with Dublin, and how to be reconciled to living on equal terms with the rest of the people on this island, not on the other bigger one where they don’t live?