It was Rudyard Kipling who advised that it was better to ‘keep your head, when all about you are losing theirs’, and frankly if he had written this poem last week instead of 130 years ago it could not have been more apposite.
It remains sound advice for the business and political leaders of today in the midst of global uncertainty created in the main by Trump and his gang. Even the way in which the tariff announcement was made last week, like it was a board game complete with props, underlined the absolute scorn the US President has for global relations, and even for the vast majority of his own people, if only they realised it.
It is now that the unique economic and trade crossroads we find ourselves post Brexit, post Windsor Framework, really comes into play. Having access to the European single market for goods while being part of the UK and therefore facing a lower tariff than our southern neighbours; well that’s a position that takes a while to wrap one’s head around.
The response from senior UK and Irish politicians has so far been appropriately calm and level headed. There is no point in knee jerk reaction when it is entirely possible, even likely, that the Trump position will switch in the months or perhaps weeks ahead. That has been the pattern of Trump’s behaviour so far.
Businesses representative bodies are correct to also urge calm and a study of how the tariffs will play out before making any long term decisions. Michelle O’Neill and Emma Little-Pengelly talked of engaging with the business community here, to hear what their concerns are and that is important. On this issue, like all others, that dialogue between business and politicians is vital.
The potential impact of tariffs on the whiskey sector throughout Ireland is one example of the myriad of complications which business leaders have to negotiate. The whiskey market has grown significantly in the last 20 years and much of that growth is driven by sales into America, a market which accounts for 41% of total sales.
A tariff, of course, will impact that market but to what level depends on whether the liquid is produced in the Republic of Ireland (20% tariff) or Northern Ireland/UK (10% tariff). Where different parts of the distillation and barrelling process take place on both parts of the island…well anyone can see where the uncertainty arises.
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Back home our Executive has had talks with both the UK and Irish Governments both before and after the announcement, with the aim of protecting and even taking advantage of our unique trading position. It is possible that in the long term, if the current tariff regime sticks, that companies currently based in the Republic, eye a move up north to take advantage of the lower tariffs. That is an opportunity for us but also a challenge.
We of course welcome inward investment and high quality jobs but as things stand we can’t build any more factories for people to work in or houses for them to live in until we solve the problems around sustainable funding for water and sewage infrastructure. In some cases businesses are actually leaving Northern Ireland and taking their expansion plans down south, that is damaging and cannot be sustained.
The big political news locally last week, no not the hyped-up argument over Irish language signage in the new transport hub, but the publication of the final budget for 2025/2026. This was of course heralded by ministers, and while it is welcome, it is also, like its accompanying Programme for Government, limited in ambition and long-term strategic planning.
This really needs to be the last time that those two documents are not co joined and agreed at the same time. Yes, our public finances are limited and limiting, but that really should not stop our political parties from planning for and delivering a transformation programme complete with multi-year budgets and more far-reaching revenue raising measures.
In the absence of such a plan - which takes in health, infrastructure, and policing among others - then we are going to forever be in reactive mode, depending on the funds we are handed from London and subject to the economic policy whims of Washington. That is a situation where our Executive relinquishes control of our own destiny.
In the same poem Kipling also reminds us that we will encounter triumph and disaster as we move though life and we can all agree that it’s best to be prepared for both.
- Brendan Mulgrew is managing partner at MW Advocate. Follow him on X at @brendanbelfast.
