All-Ireland SHC Final: Kilkenny v Limerick (holders) (Croke Park, Sunday 3.30pm; extra time if necessary)
IF anyone can, Kilkenny can. Kilkenny can… Can they?
Limerick’s tilt at an All-Ireland four-in-a-row is doubly dangerous for the Cats.
For starters, they are aiming to protect their proud feat of being the only county since the Second World War to achieve such a quadruple.
Derek Lyng’s men are also out to avoid an unwanted four-in-a-row of their own – yet another All-Ireland Final defeat since their last victory in 2015, having lost the next year, then in 2019, and again in 2022.
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The first two of those came against old rivals Tipperary, heavy margins of nine and 14 points respectively.
Last year, obviously, the loss was inflicted by hurling’s new force, the Treatymen.
Only by two points, but still.
Kilkenny’s tally of 2-26 would have won most All-Ireland Finals in history, even most over the past decade (the only other exceptions being 2021 and 2016).
It was the highest losing total ever.
However, Limerick have raised the bar in every regard. Indeed, if you raised the bar they’d score even more heavily.
1-31 last year, 3-32 the year before in hammering Cork by 16, 0-30 to see off Waterford by 11 points in 2020.
Kilkenny are different, though. And yet very similar.
The concern for the Cats is that they will look at Limerick and see a slightly better version of themselves, their best selves.
Hugely physical, both in terms of contact and endurance; teak-tough mentally; a wide range of scorers. Perhaps most importantly, a desire for silverware only exceeded by an absolute hatred of losing.
Limerick can be beaten, of course. Clare did defeat them in the second round of the Munster Championship, in the Gaelic Grounds to boot.
Tipperary came close, with a draw in Thurles. So did Cork, pipped by a point in a brutally intense round five showdown.
Clare lost out only by the minimum margin in the Munster Final.
The injury-enforced absence of skipper Declan Hannon and the loss for the season to an ACL injury of fellow defender Sean Finn were very bad blows, of course.
So Limerick do appear more vulnerable than before. Even Smaug the Magnificent had a weak spot.
Kilkenny are probably the county most likely to shoot the champions down too.
They’re the last team to do so in a Championship knock-out encounter, the 2019 All-Ireland semi-final, before being hammered by Tipp.
Such a beating for Kilkenny is rare, of course.
The Cats showed their spirit of old, the look of Limerick, in snatching victory from the jaws of defeat with a brilliant last-gasp goal in this year’s Leinster Final against Galway.
That score was a manager’s delight: the harrying of defenders in the corner, and in the centre as the Tribesmen tried to clear the danger, then the bravery from Cillian Buckley to go for goal and finish it superbly.
The brought down the Banner too, in the All-Ireland semi-final, Clare having been many pundits’ top tip as the team that could trip up the Treatymen.
Every minute, every second, could be vital, but two periods look like being highly influential on the outcome of this final: the starts to both halves.
Limerick have fallen behind early in some games, so Kilkenny will want to get on the front foot, get off to a strong start.
However, Limerick have tended to dominate ‘the Championship quarter’, the period after half-time.
Whatever way the tie is when the teams turn around, the Cats cannot allow their opponents to take charge early in the second half.
If Limerick are on top then they are the recent masters at seeing a match out, holding on for a tense, tight victory.
On paper, the margins between these teams are wafer-thin.
On the pitch it looks likewise.
Yet the gut feeling is that Limerick remain slightly better.
Kilkenny will bring the ‘savage’ intensity for which they were famed under Brian Cody – but against Limerick that’s like repeatedly running into a brick wall. But a brick wall that comes back at you.
Referee John Keenan from Wicklow will be a factor, of course. How much digging and hoking will the Garden County man allow? Where will he draw the line in the sand?
Captain Eoin Cody is firing on all cylinders for the men in black and amber and TJ Reid is an absolutely generational talent. His free-taking is better than that of the opposition, but Limerick do appear to have a greater spread of scorers overall. They also have the likes of Graeme Mulcahy and Cathal O’Neill on a deep, deep bench.
Hannon hasn’t made the match-day 26 announced, so William O’Donoghue will surely continue at centre half-back, flanked by the powerhouses Diarmaid Byrnes and Kyle Hayes, with Cian Lynch skippering the side from midfield.
With Darragh O’Donovan alongside him, and Gearoid Hegarty and Tom Morrissey on the attacking flanks, any Kilkenny long balls will have to be extremely accurate or else they’ll be swallowed up and returned with interest.
After an uncertain start to the All-Ireland semi-final, trailing Galway by six points, Limerick settled into the monstrous form they’d demonstrated for much of this decade. Their dominance as the game went on was so much that they ran out comfortable nine-point winners.
Anything is possible with this tremendous Limerick team but one doesn’t get the sense that they will see off Kilkenny without battling all the way to the long whistle, if at all.
Kilkenny’s only other real run of final defeats, since their first victory, partially coincided with the only other four-in-a-row team, Cork from 1941 to 1944 inclusive, with the black and ambers losing deciders in 1940, 1945, and 1946.
The Cats will fight tooth and claw to avoid that fate, and also prevent Limerick ascending that lofty four-in-a-row podium.
Kilkenny don’t give up easily.
Kilkenny don’t give up at all.
And yet…
Kilkenny can.
But Limerick probably will.
Referee: John Keenan (Wicklow)
