A WEEK out from the second Major of the golfing season, the US PGA Championship at Oak Hill in New York, most of the top guns on the PGA Tour have opted to get ready for the challenge away from competition.
There appears to be no right or wrong way of doing things when it comes to preparing for a Major, with it all coming down to personal taste.
This week’s AT&T Byron Nelson in Texas is shorn of the star quality of last term, when Justin Thomas finished fifth before going on to win the PGA a week later in Tulsa.
And the line-up at TPC Craig Ranch just outside Dallas took another hit on Monday night when hometown favourite Jordan Spieth withdrew due to a wrist injury which will need rest before he attempts to complete the career Grand Slam at Oak Hill.
In his absence, world number two and fellow Dallas resident Scottie Scheffler is very much the headline act, and while some of his focus is bound to be on winning a second Major come Sunday week, there is little doubt he’d love to be hoisting silverware in front of his home fans this weekend.
Naturally, it’s exceptionally difficult to win back-to-back events, although it was interesting to see Brooks Koepka go close at The Masters last month having captured LIV Tour silverware in Florida the week before, and with Phil Mickelson and Patrick Reed also posting top-five finishes at Augusta, all of those on the rebel circuit will be fully tuned in for their outing in Oklahoma this week.
Scheffler, meanwhile, opted out of last week’s elevated Wells Fargo Championship, won by Wyndham Clark, and is refreshed as he goes to post a 7/2 jolly for the Byron Nelson.
He is certainly the classiest act in a field that also includes Tyrrell Hatton, Jason Day, Tom Kim and Hideki Matsuyama, but there is no chance I’ll be weighing in behind Scheffler at such short odds in an event that has turned into a birdie-fest in each of the two renewals at Craig Ranch.
KH Lee has won on both occasions, bettering his 25-under total in 2021 by a shot last term, and he will try to make it three on the bounce, with no PGA Tour player achieving that feat at any event since Steve Stricker dominated the John Deere Classic from 2009 to 2011.
History is firmly against Lee, who has never won anywhere else but did warm up nicely with a share of eighth in the Wells Fargo and will have fans at 25/1.
Scheffler is sure to give a good account of himself, having finished no worse than 12th and won twice in 2023 – in Phoenix and at Sawgrass – but he has struggled on the greens of late, giving up shots at Augusta and again at the RBC Heritage, and that is not what you want in a tournament that is sure to be low-scoring.
Indeed, there are negatives about most of the market leaders, with Hatton making his debut here, Day having health issues, and Matsuyama battling a neck complaint that forced him to sit out Quail Hollow last week.
Dallas resident Tom Kim might be best of the top bracket at 20/1 in an event where Koreans have excelled across a number of host venues, but I’d rather look for a bit more value given the proximity of Major combat.
And the name I’ve come down on the side of is Seamus Power at 40/1.
The Waterford man is an excellent fit for Craig Ranch, where he was ninth in 2021 and 17th last term, so it was encouraging to see him come out of a slight slump with a decent 18th at Quail Hollow on Sunday.
Power (above) has fallen off the Ryder Cup radar slightly but could put himself right back in Luke Donald’s thoughts this week at an event that plays to his strengths.
He is a superb putter who makes a host of birdies – Power is second on tour from inside eight feet – while he will have no issues with the winds and possible storms forecast for Dallas, having grown up in Ireland and won in the gusts of Bermuda last autumn.
The world number 39 is one of the classier players in this line-up, and with Craig Ranch a wide-open course which generally comes down to short game skills, he could easily outrun odds of 40/1.
When it comes to short game, meanwhile, Matt Kuchar has very few equals, and it would be no surprise should the veteran American get in the mix here at 28/1 (William Hill).
While he let us down by only finishing 19th at his beloved RBC Heritage last month, Kuchar has been in fine form and is always a factor on courses that don’t punish his lack of length off the tee.
With that in mind, a share of 23rd was a very good effort at Quail Hollow last week, showing that Kuchar remains in the type of form that saw him finish a close-up third on his last visit to Texas for the Valero Open at the start of April.
A wizard around the greens, he was 12th at Craig Ranch last term and 17th in 2021, so he knows his way around at this stage and could go very well.
Finally, I’ll put up another American old-timer in Jimmy Walker at 100/1 with Paddy Power.
He won the 2016 PGA at Baltusrol just outside New York and will surely be relishing a return to that part of the world for next week’s event given his upturn in form of late.
Walker battled poor health for a number of years but is fit again and it is starting to show, with top-25s in his last four outings, during which he led the Heritage at halfway before fading at the weekend.
He has since posted a 15th in Mexico and 14th at Quail Hollow to suggest the resurgence – built mainly on a red-hot putter – may last, and as a Texas resident who has performed well in the Lone Star State on numerous occasions in the past, Walker will be very keen to go well, so there are worse three-figure bets to be had.
Of course, much of the focus will be on next week’s PGA, but it would be nice to go there with a winner in the back pocket.
AT&T BYRON NELSON SELECTIONS
Seamus Power, e/w, 40/1 (General);
Matt Kuchar, e/w, 28/1 (William Hill);
Jimmy Walker, e/w, 100/1 (Paddy Power); top 20 finish, 9/2 (Paddy Power)
