LAST night’s clash between heavyweights Paris St Germain and Barcelona left viewers and punters in no doubt that we’re now at the business end of the European season.
While the Champions League’s pre-Christmas group stage did throw up some entertaining clashes and the odd surprise – Spurs bowing out and Arsenal winning their group – the serious stuff only really gets going when the knock-out action rolls around.
Predictably, ahead of last night’s action, the ‘big three’ of Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid dominated the outright betting for the competition at best prices of 7/2, 4/1 and 5/1 respectively, just as they did at the outset back in September.
Given that these superpowers have claimed the last four renewals between them, it would be a surprise should at least one of them not reach the decider in Cardiff on June 3.
Indeed, you have to go back to the meeting of Manchester United and Chelsea in 2008 for the last time one of the three giants weren’t in the decider.
That said, never in that time have two of Barca, Bayern and Real met in the final, with luck of the draw and fatigue, amongst other things, conspiring against that eventuality.
What this proves is that, even if you have a strong feeling for one of the front three – and I don’t – there is always a value each-way alternative lingering somewhere in the betting.
It is only a matter of time before that side at a bigger price actually turns over the favourites in the final, and there are plenty of reasons to think this might be the year when a relative outsider gets their hands on the silverware.
For a start, the big guns all look that bit more vulnerable than is usually the case, and while they are all challenging hard for domestic glory, there are weaknesses to be preyed on.
Real failed to win their group before Christmas, and also have to overcome the hoodoo of the defending champions.
Bayern are seven points clear in the Bundesliga but are scratching out wins under Carlo Ancelotti.
And Barca are alternating between the sublime and the average in their pursuit of Real at the top of La Liga.
As the start of the competition, I put forward Manchester City and Juventus as the value bets, and the latter are still very much my pick.
Anyone who backed City at 12/1 still has a decent chance, although I would worry about their back four at the very top level.
There are no such defensive concerns surrounding Juve, with the names of Buffon, Chiellini, Barzagli and Bonucci just tripping off the tongue.
They’ve won every Serie A game they’ve played at home this term, conceding just three times in 12 outings, and topped a difficult Champions League group ahead of Sevilla and Lyon.
Granted, they’ve not been as impressive on their travels, losing four times in the league, but all of those have been narrow defeats and they are starting to ease away from their domestic competitors.
That defensive solidity makes Juve a really enticing prospect in two-legged combat, while their front two of Gonzalo Higuain and Paulo Dybala, backed up by Mario Mandzukic, give them ample cutting edge.
Higuain has netted 21 goals already in his first season in Turin and will strike fear into a Porto defence who have to attempt to handle him in the last 16.
That’s a decent draw for Max Allegri’s men, who have been threatening a European breakthrough for a few seasons.
They were unlucky to lose out to Bayern after extra-time at this stage last year, while in 2015 they saw off Real in the last four before losing to Barca in the final.
If you backed them at the outset at 12/1 you should be happy enough, while the fact William Hill still offer that price means you can still avail of plenty of value.
Juventus look the real deal to me and that quote is a bit on the big side.
While Bayern might not be quite firing on all cylinders under Ancelotti this season, they have more or less put the German title to bed already, and are pretty assured of a place in the Champions League quarter-finals.
I say that because for the fourth time in 13 seasons they’ve drawn Arsenal in the last 16, and things should follow a familiar script.
Arsene Wenger will be cursing his luck that, after winning their group for the first time in five years, the Gunners have to take on the Bavarians, who were second to Atletico Madrid in their section.
Since then, however, things have reverted to type, with Arsenal falling off the pace in the Premier League, losing seemingly every time they face a decent team.
The way they capitulated at Chelsea 10 days ago will have Bayern rubbing their hands, and although Ancelotti’s men have hardly been brilliant of late, they have won 10 of their last 11 games, showing an ability to do just about enough to get them through.
Munich will be keen to do enough at home tonight to make the
second leg in London a formality, especially as they’ve only won three of their last 13 European away games.
In contrast, it is 15 wins in-a-row at the Allianz Arena, and I think they will come through with a bit to spare against an out-classed Gunners side.
Bayern are 1/2 to win this evening and 1/3 to reach the last eight, but I think the value lies in backing them minus a goal in the first leg at 5/4 with Ladbrokes, while a small bet on a 3-0 home win at 12/1 with Sky Bet is also advised.
Selections
Juventus, Champions League, e/w, 12/1 (William Hill)
Bayern Munich (-1) v Arsenal, 5/4 (Ladbrokes); to win 3-0, 12/1 (Sky Bet)
WHEN Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy are sat at home in their armchairs watching this weekend’s golf unfold, they are likely to be feeling contrasting emotions.
The glory years for Tiger are almost certainly gone, with his withdrawal from this week’s Genesis Open and next week’s Honda Classic due to back spasms only underlining the feeling that the end is night for the 14-time Major winner.
McIlroy is also out of action with a stress fracture to his ribs, but you can be sure he is dying to get out there again, particularly after watching the events of the last few weeks.
Jordan Spieth’s victory at Pebble Beach on Sunday made it eight PGA Tour events in-a-row where the winner has been in his 20s.
Part of golf’s appeal over the years has been the fact players can compete on a level playing field for decades, but the evidence suggests it is increasingly a young man’s game at the top level.
McIlroy will feel he needs to be back in action soon to mix it with his contemporaries, especially as top-class performers like Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama and Justin Thomas have been making hay in his absence.
Both he and Woods were scheduled to play in the Genesis Open at Riviera County Club in Los Angeles, with Rory now hoping to be back for the WCG-Mexico Championship at the start of next month.
Even in their absence, the event at one of the most historic venues in America is packed full of stellar names, with Spieth making the short journey from Monterey to assume favouritism at a best-priced 8/1.
The prolific Matsuyama, fresh from defending his Phoenix Open title, is a general 10/1 shot, while Jason Day and Dustin Johnson, yesterday’s men in their early 30s, are also in the field.
Despite his advancing years, I’m picking the 32-year-old Johnson (right) to emerge on top.
‘DJ’ can be backed at 9/1 with Paddy Power and a mere glance at his Riviera record shows he is a rock-solid each-way shout at the very least.
He has brilliant course pedigree without actually winning, with a second in 2014 and again a year later added to by a third in 2010 and fourth last term, when Bubba Watson won for the second time in three years.
Johnson was third behind Spieth on Sunday, and was also second in Abu Dhabi a couple of weeks before that, to suggest he’s not far off the brilliant form of last summer.
Bubba will have his followers at around 33s given his course wins, but his form is pretty terrible and I’d look elsewhere for a more confident alternative.
That leads me to Sergio Garcia, the ultimate confidence player.
The 37-year-old Spaniard recently got engaged and it seems to have changed his demeanour as he took a wire-to-wire victory in Dubai 10 days ago while barely breaking sweat.
He has also gone well at Riviera, a course that demands excellence from tee-to-green, finishing fourth in 2012 and again three years later.
I’ll have him each-way at 25/1 with William Hill.
Finally, a small place investment on Keegan Bradley at 80/1 is advised.
The 2012 runner-up at Riviera also tied for fourth in 2015 alongside Garcia, while he has shown some good form of late.
Bradley’s last outing resulted in a missed cut at the Phoenix Open but that event can get to any player, especially a fidgety one like Bradley.
I’d prefer to focus on his fourth the previous week at Torrey Pines, and another trip to southern California might seen him outrun that 80/1 quote.
Selections
Dustin Johnson, Genesis Open, e/w, 9/1 (Paddy Power)
Sergio Garcia, Genesis Open, e/w, 25/1 (William Hill)
Keegan Bradley, Genesis Open, e/w, 80/1 (General)
