Well folks, here we go again with the best four days in the horseracing world, where reputations and fortunes will be made, enhanced and trashed in equal measure.
After a winter which can be summed up in three words – wet, wet, wet ‑ the sun finally appeared last week, drying the ground which has been saturated for months.
Cheltenham has a very good drainage system but even that can’t cope with the amount of rain that has fallen on the hallowed turf. The Festival will start on the softest ground in 20 years.
The run-up to this week has become very tedious as speculation goes on and on about which horses will run in which race, particularly those trained by Willie Mullins. Someone once said that trying to read Willie is like reading Ulysses upside down, in Japanese.
It was only confirmed on Sunday that Ballyburn will run in the first race tomorrow and not the first today, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.
Lossiemouth will go in the mares’ race at 4.10 rather than the Champion Hurdle, while Gaelic Warrior will run today in the Arkle, having had other engagements.
Ante-post betting for these races has become impossible. The defection of reigning Champion Hurdler Constitution Hill last week due to illness has further complicated things.
I had a small ante-post bet on Iberico Lord for the County Hurdle on Friday as he had won here impressively in November in a race in which has worked out really well with six next-time-out winners, and the County was the only race he was entered for. That was until he was supplemented last week at a cost of £18,000 for the Champion Hurdle.
For those readers unfamiliar with ante-post betting, if your horse does not run or runs in a different race, you lose. Ouch!
I have had one other ante-post bet which I will tell you about on Thursday.
The Supreme which opens proceedings for the week has a very open look to it now that Ballyburn has been re-routed to the longer race tomorrow.
I think it is between four Irish horses and my preference is for Gordon Elliott’s Firefox. He beat Ballyburn earlier in the season at Fairyhouse and this has been the plan ever since.
The likely favourite Tullyhill does not jump well enough and is vulnerable as they go off very fast here following the traditional roar as the tapes go up.
The Arkle which follows could also go to Elliott as his Found A Fifty has the best profile. He was caught on the line at Leopardstown last month and I think he will be held up more and fly up the hill.
Quilixios is the danger. He won the Triumph Hurdle a couple of years ago and is another for whom the hill holds no fears. A wee reverse forecast might be the play here. Gaelic Warrior cannot run left-handed.
State Man will win the Champion Hurdle bar a fall. Irish Point should be second.
I will be keeping a close eye on Iberico Lord and he needs to finish in the first four to recoup his late entry fee. Assuming he does, I and the others who backed him for the County Hurdle will feel a bit aggrieved as that level of form would win the County.
The best handicap chase of the season, the Ultima, precedes the Champion Hurdle. The first two home in this last year were Corach Rambler, who subsequently won the Grand National, and Fastorslow, who later beat Gold Cup favourite Galopin Des Champs twice and is a strong contender for Friday.
I will raise a glass if Chianti Classico wins. He was a fine second last time out, conceding lumps of weight to the winner.
It is worth noting that not one of Willie Mullins’ 94 Festival winners have come in a handicap chase, so on the stats alone that will rule out quite a few runners.
Elsewhere on the card, a horse preview star Johnny Dineen has been talking about all winter, Lark In The Mornin, runs in the 4.50, a handicap for young horses.
He is very well treated but according to tipster Kevin Blake – who works for trainer Joseph O’Brien – he needs good ground.
The final race will be won by a Mullins runner. I like Embassy Gardens, trained by Willie, while his main danger is Corbetts Cross, trained by his nephew Emmet.
Preference is for Embassy Gardens who is the better jumper. Corbetts Cross fell last time out and horses which come to Cheltenham on the back of a fall have a terrible record.
One a day to keep the bailiffs away
The old cliche that it is a marathon and not a sprint could have been invented for the Cheltenham Festival. It is a long time from the Supreme on Tuesday to the Martin Pipe in the twilight on Friday.
In order to have an interest on the final day, a bit of discipline is required.
It will be tempting to go all in on the short-priced jollies on Tuesday and Wednesday. They may all win but the prices mean limited returns on stakes, and if one is beaten the betting tank has been holed and it will be a long way back.
I always do a bet which covers the whole week, a one a day Lucky 15 which gives you an interest all week.
Tuesday
The selection today is Found A Fifty in the Arkle at 2.10. This is an open race and he has very solid form and jumps well. The Arkle has been his sole target all season and he can be another winner for Gordon Elliott and Jack Kennedy.
Wednesday
Harper’s Brook in the Grand Annual at 4.50 is the selection tomorrow. He has been called more names than a referee at an Old Firm match as he has a tendency to lose concentration when in the lead, most notably at Ascot just before Christmas.
He managed to hold on last time at Sandown and the fast pace assured should suit him fine. His trainer, Ben Pauling, is having a great season.
Thursday
Going for another one in a handicap – Gaoth Chuil, which means tail wind in Irish. This mare is trained by Ruby Walsh’s dad Ted and has a win and three seconds to her name this season. Listening to Ruby on one of the many previews last week certainly wouldn’t put me off as he thinks she is a certainty to be placed at least.
Friday
Another handicap selection for Friday. L’Eau Du Sud is the one for the County Hurdle. He was second last time out, beaten by no other than Iberico Lord.
He is trained by Dan Skelton who has won this race four times since 2016. He looks to have a nice weight and the trainer was very positive when interviewed by Ruby last week.