It was no accident that Jacques Nienaber named his 23 early, but Ireland haven’t won 33 of 40 matches under this management group by taking any bait.
Andy Farrell walks into a bar. “Just the usual”. You play your game, we’ll play ours. That was very much the sentiment in his team announcement. Not only are this Ireland team statistically number one, they believe it. They play like it. Why change now?
The “Bomb Squad” is a term coined by the Saffas themselves, and now they have the media and the rugby world on side. The likes of Matt Williams has strongly voiced his disapproval; Bernard Jackman the opposite.
The Springboks won’t care. Just so long as everyone is talking about it, it’s a case of job done. Somewhere meandering between sports’ psychology and hypnosis. Of course, it’s a gamble, but they have disposed of Scotland. A double-edged sword, as Ireland haven’t.
And so their risk is more of a lucky dip than Russian roulette. Their seven reserve forwards will enter the fray together barring injury or ill discipline. What a sight that will be. A royal rumble in the concrete jungle of Saint-Denis.
A South African win and this seven-one split is a master stroke. It will provide a blueprint of how to defeat an Ireland machine, one that trundles on. Lose and it’s back to the drawing board, something a little more difficult for an established first choice Ireland XV and game-plan.
It’s the world’s best defence against the world’s best attack. Score early and Ireland could really kick on. Concede early and South Africa have the potential to strangle them out of contention.
The Springboks will aim to slow Ireland’s ruck speed like their lives depend on it. Slow Ireland down, and Johnny Sexton is a sitting duck. Overly commit to the breakdown, and they will leave themselves exposed.
A defensive system built by Rassie Erasmus is founded on risk. Four and five players shoot up hard and fast, making defensive predictions more so than reads. If they get it wrong, the secondary line comes sweeping across to cover.
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Essentially, the opposition are baited into thinking there is space out wide, where they are met by a steam train in the shape of Cheslin Kolbe or Kurt-Lee Arendse. Tracking behind is the scramble defence on the rare occasion they miss the hit.
Ronan O’Gara made the point that long pass-long pass is exactly what South Africa want. Ireland must keep their attacking options narrow, plentiful, and animated, with Sexton’s decision making the difference in an Irish line-break or a South African intercept try.
A ball in the air buys the defence time.
With the right options taken, it won’t be a power game. Defenders will be caught in two minds, Ireland will break the gain line, and Jamison Gibson-Park will feed his backs high quality ball.
As the Stade Rochelais coach said, “flailing arms” are the target, not bodies. If body meets body, there’s only one winner.
With the multitude of poachers Nienaber’s men have at their disposal, Ireland will have to mix it up however. Gibson-Park, Sexton, James Lowe and Hugo Keenan will all need to have their kicking boots on. There will be space in the back field, even if it is more central.
Around the 50th minute, this game will be won and lost. The second wave, but we won’t give them the pedestal of calling them what they want to be called. It’s one subs bench against another, eight men on each.
Call the Irish bomb defusers if you please, but if you fight fire with fire, you’re going to get burned. Ireland look set to stick to what they know best, and why wouldn’t they?
