WHATEVER way you look at it, the US PGA is the poor relation of the Major championship family.
It doesn’t have the majesty of the Masters at Augusta, the fearsome reputation of the US Open, or the history of the Open Championship.
Yet, what it does have is a brilliant position on the golfing calendar, at the end of the summer when the big events are coming thick and fast and the stellar names are frantically trying to clinch a victory to put a seal on their season. It is the last chance saloon for some, while for others it offers an opportunity to make a great year even better before the mad scramble for cash begins in the FedEx Cup play-offs.
Rory McIlroy famously said in the past that he considers a year something of a failure unless he wins a Major, and the world number one will make his comeback at the magnificent Whistling Straits in Wisconsin this week. McIlroy goes into this one as the defending champion, having won the event for the second time in three years at Valhalla 12 months ago, and he’s also trying to defend his position as world number one from Jordan Spieth, who has had a superb 2015 regardless of what happens from here on in.
The Texan won the first two Majors of the year and missed out on a play-off by a shot in the third, at St Andrews three weeks ago. Rory sat that one out with his ankle injury, and tees it up tomorrow – in the company of Spieth and Open champion Zach Johnson – for the first time since his tie for ninth in the US Open at Chambers Bay at the end of June.
The Holywood man says he is fully recovered from his football injury, and physically he might be in good shape, but it is very hard to feel he will be game-ready after such a lay-off, while the undulations of Whistling Straits will find him out if there are any weaknesses in his ankle.
Ordinarily, the Straits Course on the shores of Lake Michigan should suit him given its length, and he did finish third at the venue five years ago, but I can’t see the value in a bet this week, even with some firms dangling 11/1 under the noses of punters.
Spieth is the jolly, at a best price of 7/1 with Ladbrokes, and he warmed up with a fast-finishing 10th at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone on Sunday. And while the tree-lined fairways in Ohio are a million miles from the links-style course on offer in Wisconsin this week, it is impossible to get away from the fact that, in recent seasons, Firestone form has acted as a great indicator for the final Major of the year.
Since 2007, when the Bridgestone was moved to the slot a week before this event, all but one subsequent PGA champion has finished in the top 20 at Firestone, with the only exception coming in 2010 when Martin Kaymer made the journey to Whistling Straits on the back of a tie for 22nd, which was hardly bad form either. Indeed, the last three PGA champions – McIlroy twice and Jason Dufner – have placed in the top five in Ohio, with McIlroy winning both events last year.
What all that means, naturally, is that it pays to side with the men in form, and Shane Lowry will be licking his lips about this week after his brilliant win on Sunday night. Indeed, had he not experienced the huge high of a World Golf Championship victory, the Offaly links specialist would be right at the forefront of my thinking, and I still wouldn’t rule out a big showing at 66/1.
Spieth and McIlroy head the betting, but I’m prepared to take them on with the next two players on the list, Bubba Watson and Jason Day. My slight preference would be for Watson, who finished second to Lowry on Sunday night after a closing 66 at Firestone.
That was his second runner-up finish in-a-row after he came in behind Day at the Canadian Open, and Watson could hardly be in better form going into Whistling Straits, where he was also the runner-up five years ago when he lost a play-off to Kaymer. The mercurial left-hander has come on leaps and bounds since then, and is regarded much more as a class act than a big-hitting novelty show these days.
That said, his big hitting will be a huge advantage on this sprawling lay-out once more, and the fact it is a par 72 with four par-fives will play into his hands as he has more eagles on the PGA Tour this season than anybody else.
Watson is already a Major champion, having won the Masters twice, but now is the time for him to claim his first big one away from Augusta, which could’ve been built for him.
Get on Bubba at the general 16/1.
Day, meanwhile, is yet to win a Major anywhere, but he served notice of his talent here five years ago when, as something of an unknown, he was in the hunt all the way before a closing 74 saw him drop down into a tie for 10th. The Australian has since established himself as an elite player, and is remarkably consistent in the Majors.
He missed out on the play-off at St Andrews last month by a shot, with that tie for fourth his eighth top-10 result in the Majors in the last four years. Three of those have been runner-up finishes, while he has been third once and fourth twice, so it is hard to get away from the impression Day (right) is a Major winner in waiting.
He also comes into this one in fine form, having won the Canadian Open just six days after his St Andrews heartbreak, while his 12th at Firestone should put nobody off. He might be slightly on the short side at 14/1 (Paddy Power, Ladbrokes) but it is very hard not to think he will be bang in the hunt.
ELSEWHERE, it would be very easy to make strong cases for Rickie Fowler (25/1, Ladbrokes) and Brooks Koepka (45/1, Paddy Power), while Dustin Johnson is capable of anything on his return to the site of one of the first of his many Major near-misses. But I can’t tip everyone and to go alongside the two principals at shortish odds, I’ll put up two more at slightly bigger prices.
The first of those is Jim Furyk, who can be backed at 50/1 with any number of firms, which appears a massive price for a player ranked fourth in the world who is in great form at the minute.
The veteran American will have been a bit disappointed not to get the job done at Firestone after holding a share of the lead going into the final day, but his tie for third was his fifth top-five finish in his last nine events, starting with a victory at the RBC Heritage at the end of April.
On the face of it, Whistling Straits should be too long for him, but Furyk has made a career out of the unorthodox, and he was third at halfway here five years ago, and still in contention going into the final round before he fell away a bit. That at least shows he can handle the lay-out and the price is very big.
My other each-way pick is unheralded Swede David Lingmerth, who led the Open at one stage on the first morning before coming unstuck. He has been in fine fettle generally since winning the Memorial back in June, where he defeated Justin Rose in a play-off, with Spieth two shots behind in third.
That result showed he can mix it with the best, and everything the Swede has done since has backed that feeling up, as his tie for sixth on Sunday followed on from a third in the Quicken Loans National a week before.
Lingmerth is a general 100/1 punt this week and stakes should be on the small side, but he has the form and belief to get in the mix in an event that can throw up a big price winner every few years.
Finally, I like the look of Lowry in the top Irishman betting at 4/1 with Ladbrokes. With fitness concerns surrounding McIlroy and form concerns hovering over Graeme McDowell, Pádraig Harrington and Darren Clarke, that price is very generous, as the belief that will come with Sunday’s victory can’t be overlooked.
TAKE A PGA PUNT
Bubba Watson, e/w, 16/1 (General)
Jason Day, e/w, 14/1 (Paddy Power, Ladbrokes)
Jim Furyk, e/w, 50/1 (General)
David Lingmerth, e/w, 100/1 (General)
Shane Lowry, e/w, 66/1 (888sport); top Irishman, 4/1 (Ladbrokes)
