SO the football Championship starts this weekend, with matches in all four provinces – but whenever their first game actually is, the big guns will be looking much further down the line.
There’s almost no jeopardy for Dublin or Kerry, given their talent and recent dominance of the Leinster and Munster scenes – but there’s very little for many of the other leading teams either.
The inauguration last year of an almost ‘League Championship’, the linkage of performance in the League to qualification for the top tier of Championship – the Sam Maguire Cup – has changed they dynamic for many.
Of course there’s an advantage, an incentive, to winning your province, and even to reaching the final, in terms of seedings for the Sam Maguire Cup group stages.
Yet if any of the bigger guns somehow slip up and fail to reach their provincial final they know they have the safety net created by their performances in the league.
Whether or not it’s a good thing, there’s definitely more pressure on the lower-ranked counties in the early rounds of the Championship.
For many of them it is ‘win or bust’, at least in terms of keeping alive their slim hopes of competing in the Sam Maguire Cup series.
Half the teams in the country – plus London and New York – know that only reaching their provincial final would elevate them out of the Tailteann Cup.
For a few of those, that’s a pretty forlorn hope, if it even qualifies as a hope at all.
In Leinster, Longford, Offaly, and Laois are all on the same side of the draw as Dublin. So…shrugs.
In Munster, Limerick have the tall task of having to pull off that classic combo, beating both Cork and Kerry to get to the decider.
Derry have confirmed their top ranking from the League, with Dublin just behind them.
The rest of the top six from Division One – Kerry, Mayo, Tyrone, and Galway – are also absolutely assured of their Sam Maguire Cup.
So too now are Donegal, booking their place as the seventh team in the League rankings by seeing off Armagh in that Division Two decider.
In reality, the Orchardmen are in very little danger of missing out. The same goes for the two teams relegated from the top flight, Roscommon and Monaghan.
It would require an extraordinary combination of unexpected provincial finalists to push them out of the ‘Sam’ scene.
Clare, Tipperary, or Waterford will get one Munster Final slot, but it’s tough to see any other lesser lights getting into any provincial final spotlight.
One of Longford, Offaly, and Laois would need to emerge rather than Dublin or Meath in that half of the Leinster Championship. LOL indeed.
At least the other half is full of struggling sides – Kildare, Wicklow, Wexford, and Carlow will all think about overtaking Westmeath and Louth, who are above them in the League rankings.
In Connacht, though, Leitrim, Sligo, and London all have Galway in their way. On the other side of the draw New York would need to get past Mayo then Roscommon.
The reality is that we can probably expect the following provincial finals: Derry-Armagh (Ulster), Dublin-Louth (Leinster), Galway-Mayo (Connacht), and Kerry in the Munster decider. Opponent to be determined (but identity not really important).
In fact in Ulster it doesn’t matter if it’s not Derry, as Donegal, Tyrone, Monaghan, and even Cavan are all well enough placed from the League, so that if any of them make it to the final it won’t help out any of the hopefuls in the other half.
Fermanagh will feel they can use the Brewster Park factor to cause a surprise against Armagh, but even if they do the Orchardmen will surely still be in the race for Sam.
Similarly, Antrim may feel they can cause a shock against Down, who like Armagh suffered the disappointment of defeat in a League Final at the weekend.
The Mournemen are clearly the side most under pressure. Promotion in the League proved not to be quite enough for them in the Championship.
Thirty years on from their last Ulster and All-Ireland triumphs, Down are painfully aware that only old style provincial success can see them into the Sam Maguire conversation.
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On quite a few occasions in the past scuffles and off-the-ball shenanigans have overshadowed great games of football.
You know the pattern – outrage on social media, phone-in shows and public debates for days, certain clips and still photos doing the rounds and dissected under media and supporter microscopes.
The reverse was true on Sunday, thankfully.
Derry and Dublin did lock horns with the ball not being an object of interest at times, but almost all the post-match debate surrounded the quality of their play and the drama the two counties produced.
What impressed even in those apparently mad moments was the discipline of both sides. Sure, there was plenty of holding and hauling, pulling and dragging, various forms of wrestling – but probably not a proper punch thrown.
Dublin have shown repeatedly that they can deal with heightened expectations.
Derry can say the same this season. So far.
The only match they have lost was when they deliberately sent out a weakened team at home to the Dubs.
What was clear from Dublin barging and buffeting at Derry players on several occasions was how highly they now regard the Oak Leafers.
Derry are definitely in the fight for Sam.