The Allianz Leagues have drawn the boot on six sides doomed to the fate of relegation. Even with the League finals yet to be played, Championship fever is sweeping in.
For Down and Westmeath, their result this weekend could dictate a whole lot more than just silverware. With nine sides (Meath and provincial finalists) guaranteed Sam Maguire football, just seven slots are decided based on League standing.
There will of course be an overlap of teams however.
On paper, keeping the Championship draw in mind, the most likely provincial final pairings would be the following, if the favourites were to progress:
Derry v Armagh
Dublin v Louth
Clare v Kerry
Galway v Mayo
Of those eight sides, only Clare fall outside next year’s Allianz League Division One or Division Two.
Therefore, the Banner would qualify at the expense of the country’s 16th ranked league side, as all the other hypothetical finalists above are within that 16.
That 16th team just so happens to be the loser of this weekend’s Division Three final between Down and Westmeath.
That is of course just the most likely scenario, and as we know, it is no way guaranteed.
However, the picture is a whole lot clearer if we assume each of the following very likely scenarios:
1) Limerick DO NOT make a Munster final, i.e. beat both Cork and Kerry.
2) Winners of Sligo v Leitrim DO NOT beat Galway.
3) Fermanagh or Antrim DO NOT make an Ulster final.
4) Dublin qualify for the Leinster final.
Essentially, it doesn’t matter who makes the Ulster final. Nothing changes unless it is Fermanagh, Antrim or Down.
Equally it doesn’t matter if Kerry beat Cork or if Roscommon get the better of Mayo. In the eyes of the law, they are straight swaps.
The issue for Down lies with the Clare v Waterford draw. Both Munster sides fall outside the top 16.
And the winner of that tie is guaranteed Sam Maguire football, turning the top 16 into a top 15 in terms of Sam Maguire qualification.
The losers of Down v Westmeath this weekend then lose out (in 16th place) and face Tailteann Cup football, unless they can make a provincial final themselves.
Assume this as the most likely scenario, using the expected provincial finalists outlined above, but again, it doesn’t actually matter if we swap in any of Cork, Roscommon, Cavan, Donegal, Monaghan or Tyrone.
We’ll use the favourites to keep it as straightforward as possible.
Championship qualification (9 sides):
Derry + Armagh - Ulster
Dublin + Louth - Leinster
Kerry + Clare - Munster
Mayo + Galway - Connacht
Meath - Tailteann Cup champions
Our remaining seven are made up of the league’s top 16 sides, EXCLUDING the nine sides above.
League qualification:
1) Tyrone
2) Donegal
3) Roscommon
4) Monaghan
5) Cavan
6) Cork
7) Down OR Westmeath (Division Three winners)
The only variables look to be in the Ulster and Leinster Championship.
Clare or Waterford will contest the Munster final. Galway are red-hot favourites to play what is destined to be Roscommon or Mayo.
So we’re left with what we’ll call three star games, if we remove the prospect of major upsets that we outlined at the beginning.
Each of these three present the most likely chance of an upset that will have Tailteann Cup ramifications:
Star game A: Leinster quarter-final
Kildare v Westmeath
Star game B: Leinster semi-final
Kildare/Westmeath v Louth
Star game C: Ulster semi-final
Down v Armagh*
So let’s break it down into two scenarios, revolving around Down v Armagh.
Scenario 1: Armagh beat Down
Louth are almost guaranteed to be playing Sam Maguire football should Armagh beat Down. Even if they lose their Leinster semi-final, they would qualify on the grounds of league seeding.
In the quite possible scenario where Kildare OR Westmeath qualify for the Leinster final, the Mournemen will play Tailteann Cup football.
Even if Down win this weekend, they will need Louth to make the Leinster decider to avoid the drop to the Tailteann Cup. On form, these 16 teams are the most likely to be in the race for Sam (see below).
If Down lose this weekend, their league position WILL NOT qualify them for the country’s top 16 sides and Sam Maguire football.
Westmeath likewise must win the Division 3 crown and hope Louth make the Leinster final IF they do not get there themselves.
This is the only scenario in which both Westmeath and Louth can play Sam Maguire football.
Scenario 2: Down beat Armagh
The biggest loser in Down beating Armagh would ironically be Louth, the same side that Conor Laverty’s side may end up secretly supporting this summer.
In Scenario 2, a Dublin v Westmeath OR Kildare final would mean Tailteann Cup football for Louth.
Here:
Therefore, Louth’s sixth-placed finish in Division Two this year would cost them. Cork become the lowest ranked league side to enter, with only six sides qualifying based on league status.
Should Down upset Armagh, Westmeath are also impacted, with their league positioning becoming null and void.
The only possible scenario in which both Down and Westmeath can qualify for the Sam Maguire is through the Championship.
If one makes a provincial final, they condemn the other to the Tailteann Cup.
All rather straightforward. Glad that’s all cleared up.