Opinion

Deaglán de Bréadún: How can we be protected in this crazy world?

Debris hangs from a residential building heavily damaged in a Russian bombing in Bakhmut, eastern Ukraine, in May last year
Debris hangs from a residential building heavily damaged in a Russian bombing in Bakhmut, eastern Ukraine, in May last year Debris hangs from a residential building heavily damaged in a Russian bombing in Bakhmut, eastern Ukraine, in May last year

THE only source of consolation after the recent sad passing of the legendary Christy Dignam, famed as lead singer of the Irish rock band Aslan, was hearing his wonderful voice again on radio, with the singer from Dublin asking his loved one how he might protect her "in this crazy world".

And crazy world it certainly is. Look at the continuing war between Russia and Ukraine, which has brought us back to the days when fear of nuclear obliteration hung over everyone's life like a dark cloud.

We haven't yet got to the nightmare stage of the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962 when people couldn't sleep at night because of fears that the Americans or the Russians would press the nuclear button, provoking a similar response from the other side, but the possibility cannot be excluded.

Indeed nothing can be ruled out in our crazy world. The recent coup attempt in Russia made one feel that it was 1917 all over again: the year when the country was plunged into turmoil, there was a revolution in February, the Tsar abdicated and another revolution took place in October, followed ultimately by a horrific Stalinist dictatorship.

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Turning to the present, if Putin is pushed out of office, it looks like he might be succeeded by someone even more warlike. Indeed the most alarming moment in the recent mutiny came when it was reported that Putin had fled from Moscow by plane for his residence hundreds of miles away in Valdai.

There appears to be a particularly aggressive element on both sides of the current conflict for whom the complete humiliation and crushing of their enemy is a priority. There are hopefully others with a more moderate view who appreciate the need for everyone to have something to take away from any peace negotiations. Allowing for some very different circumstances, our own Good Friday pact isn't a bad role model in that regard.

Despite my Catholic family background I would not be an uncritical admirer of the Vatican, but you have to give credit to Pope Francis for sending a peace envoy, Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, for three days of talks in Moscow at the end of last month. Speaking in Rome on Friday last, Francis said: "The tragic reality of this war that seems to have no end demands of everyone a common creative effort to imagine and forge paths of peace."

Anna Shevchenko (35) stands next to her home in Irpin, near Kyiv, which was was nearly completely destroyed by bombing by Russia in March last year
Anna Shevchenko (35) stands next to her home in Irpin, near Kyiv, which was was nearly completely destroyed by bombing by Russia in March last year Anna Shevchenko (35) stands next to her home in Irpin, near Kyiv, which was was nearly completely destroyed by bombing by Russia in March last year

Cardinal Zuppi also visited Kyiv at the start of June for talks with Ukraine's President Zelenskiy. The Pope has repeatedly called for an end to the Russian invasion.

As a result of this war, Finland joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) military alliance last April and Sweden's application for membership is currently being processed. Collective defence is a fundamental Nato principle, so it's not good news for Russian militarists.

When Nato was formed in 1949, one of its founding members was the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. The Republic of Ireland is not a Nato member and Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has said he is "sure" there will be no application to join, although he said the Irish state would "become more involved in European defence and security".

If the 26 counties were in a location similar to Finland or Sweden, you can be darn sure that an application for membership would at this stage have been lodged or at least be under very serious consideration.

Finland's President Sauli Niinisto, left, and Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg address the media. Finland has joined the Nato military alliance in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine
Finland's President Sauli Niinisto, left, and Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg address the media. Finland has joined the Nato military alliance in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine Finland's President Sauli Niinisto, left, and Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg address the media. Finland has joined the Nato military alliance in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine

What would happen in terms of Nato membership if a united Ireland was approved by democratic vote, north and south? It would doubtless be an issue in the debate beforehand.

The obvious assumption is that a 32-county state would be neutral, unless there was some kind of federal arrangement and the north could make its own decision on the matter. Unionists and indeed others might well argue against unity on the basis that staying in Nato was essential from a security viewpoint.

In the shorter term, if Sinn Féin led the next government in Dublin, how would they approach the issue?

Interviewed by journalist Conor Gallagher for his recently-published book Is Ireland Neutral? The Many Myths of Irish Neutrality, party leader Mary Lou McDonald backs the Irish government policy of sending non-lethal military aid to Ukraine.

Following the full-scale invasion by the Russians, she called a number of times for the expulsion of the Russian Ambassador to Ireland, whereas the government urged restraint, citing the need to keep the diplomatic channels open.

She is not convinced that neutrality will emerge as a sticking-point on the road to Irish unity but, if the issue does arise in that context, "it will have to be discussed".