Combined support for Sinn Féin and the DUP has fallen to its lowest level for more than 20 years, according to the latest polling.
Research conducted in November on behalf of the University of Liverpool’s Institute of Irish Studies, shows slippage for all Stormont’s ruling parties bar the Ulster Unionists, who are represented at the Executive table by Health Minister Mike Nesbitt.
The poll puts Sinn Féin on 25.3%, more than six points clear of the DUP, which is on 19.2%.
But both parties’ share of the popular vote has declined, with Sinn Féin down 3.7 percentage points compared to its 2022 Assembly election performance, while the DUP has fallen back by 2.1 points.
If the poll results were repeated in an election, it would be the first time since 2003 that the combined vote of Sinn Fein and the DUP represented less than half of the votes cast.
In a corresponding poll in March 2023, Sinn Féin had 30.6% of the vote and the DUP 23.9% - 54.5% combined.
The Alliance Party’s share of the vote in the latest survey has slipped by 0.9 points to 12.6%, while support for the Ulster Unionists has increased by 0.8 points to 12%.
The TUV’s 10.4% share in the poll – an 2.8 point increase on 2022 – has pushed the SDLP into sixth place despite Claire Hanna’s party enjoying the most modest of increases to 9.2%.
People Before Profit’s vote share has more than doubled from 1.1% to 2.6%, while the largest increase was in the Green Party’s vote, which is up from 1.9% to 5.1%.
According to Irish News columnist and Slugger O’Toole deputy editor David McCann, “all of the Executive parties have reasons to look over their shoulders at potential rivals”.
He noted how the combined DUP/Sinn Féin vote share of 44.5% would be the lowest vote for the two parties at an Assembly election since 2003.
“With little over 500 days to go until the next Stormont election, the fraying of the vote towards more minor parties shows that both of the big two cannot be complacent going into 2026,” he said.
The Stormont Sources podcast host said the figures indicated both the Executive’s biggest parties would lose some electoral ground, with the DUP taking the lion’s share of the losses.
“The continued rise of the TUV in this poll, and in others too, shows that for the time being the days of the DUP sweeping the unionist vote are over,” he said.
“Based on these figures, Michelle O’Neill would not only get a second term as first minister, but the DUP would also face their worst result at an Assembly election since 1998.”
Mr McCann said the rise in support for the Greens and People Before Profit “could be coming at the expense of Sinn Féin, as the SDLP appear to be flat-lining and disillusioned voters look for a different protest vehicle”.
