Northern Ireland

Local Election 2023: John Manley scrutinises each party's performance

Graphics by davidbixter.com
Graphics by davidbixter.com

Sinn Féin


144 seats + 39

30.9 per cent vote share + 7.7 


Verdict: Flawless capturing of public mood 

There couldn't have been a better outcome to this election for Sinn Féin, which surpassed even its own expectations as well as those of all commentators. The scale of its victory shows how far the party has come over the course of four decades, a journey that has seen it transform from what was once termed the 'political wing of the IRA' to a left-of-centre, highly effective, political machine that increasingly focuses on the present and attracting votes from a new generation of voters, as well as those who have remained loyal to the party in the long term. Its campaign message was simple, helped immeasurably by DUP intransigence, Tory nonchalance and the fact that it has no recent record in government to defend. Breakthroughs in Ballymena (Mid & East Antrim) and Lisburn North (Lisburn & Castlereagh) shows how the party is advancing in unionist heartlands, the only setback being Noel Sands' failure to become the first ever republican representative on Ards & North Down Council.

Political Correspondent John Manley analysises the election results with Anna Mercer and David McCann

Northern Ireland local election 2023 - results in full


NI elections 2023: How it happened

Mary Lou McDonald, Michelle O'Neill and Belfast mayor Tina Black. Picture by Pacemaker
Mary Lou McDonald, Michelle O'Neill and Belfast mayor Tina Black. Picture by Pacemaker

DUP


120 seats – no change


23.3 per cent – 0.8 


Verdict: Stability masks strategic challenges

Ostensibly this was good result for the DUP, a demonstration that its base is largely supportive of the Stormont boycott. Nearly two years into his leadership and in the face of widespread external criticism, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson should be reasonably happy with the outcome of both Thursday's election and last year's' assembly election. Sinn Féin's runaway success will unnerve unionism but it will also enable the DUP to continue to deploy its anti-republican scare tactic, an approach that marks it out from the faltering UUP. The loss of George Dorrian, the party's group leader on Belfast City Council and Lisburn & Castlereagh sitting mayor Scott Carson will certainly dent morale. What the DUP's as-you-were performance does not immediately make apparent, however, is that unionism's share of the pie is shrinking. The Ulster Unionists lost 21 seats and the PUP lost two of its three, yet the TUV only increased its representation by three, suggesting unionist voters are either migrating in significant numbers to Alliance or simply staying at home. 

Alliance


65 seats +14


13.3 per cent vote share +1.8


Verdict: Onwards and upwards but at a slower rate 

Only the most optimistic Alliance supporters believed Thursday's election would see Naomi Long's party continue on the remarkable trajectory that over the past four years has seen it become a major force in regional politics. Its expansion continues with the securing of its first seat in Fermanagh and the election of the north's youngest ever councillor but the momentum has weakened slightly, suggesting Alliance may be close to peaking in the east while breakthroughs west of the Bann are still only token. Two seat losses in Derry & Strabane just weeks after opening a north-west office highlight the difficulties of sustaining support outside its traditional heartlands yet there's also evidence of consolidation and potential for further growth.   

Ulster Unionist Party 


53 seats –21


10.9 per cent vote share –3.2


Verdict: Confused and contracting

Proportionately the losses at this election for the UUP are much greater than in 2019 when the party then under Robin Swann's leadership lost 13 seats. In many ways Doug Beattie oversees two parties – one of younger, liberally-minded representatives loyal to his 'union for all' message, and another more conservative and less responsive to the leader's vision. It's difficult to know which wing took the greatest battering last Thursday but neither can claim the moral high ground. The need for unionism to liberalise and extend its reach is obvious but the UUP's slow response means it has been outflanked by Alliance in this regard. Increasingly, it's becoming a home for unionist voters who for historical reasons dislike the DUP and Alliance equally, which isn't a sustainable base.  

SDLP


39 seats –17


8.7 per cent vote share –3.3


Verdict: Nationalism's also-rans continue to falter

Polling indicated that the SDLP was going to have a bruising election so in many ways the party was prepared for its worst ever local election result. Sinn Féin's prominence has seen Colum Eastwood's party marginalised across the north and while there were consolations in south and west Belfast, republicans reasserted their authority in the SDLP leader's backyard. There's nothing necessarily wrong with its people or with its policies, many of which mirror Sinn Féin, but something appears drastically wrong with the SDLP's message or at least its ability to convey it effectively. Arguably there's too much harking back and living on past glories rather than focussing on the here and now.   

Others


33 seats –12


12.8 per cent vote share 

In Jim Allister's dreams the TUV would have a category all to itself, however, the anti-almost everything party failed to make a serious dent in the DUP's vote. It gained three seats – nine in all – but failed to match its 2014 high point. On the back of last year's disastrous assembly election, the Greens continued to fall back, the party's representation cut from five to three, with leader Mal O'Hara failing to get re-elected. People Before Profit, which like the Greens enjoyed relative success in 2019, also took a hit, losing three of its five seats, including that of the prominent Fiona Ferguson in Belfast's Oldpark DEA. Aontú was also hammered and left without a single councillor, while the PUP has been reduced to a single councillor.