SINN Féin’s hold in South Down is unlikely to be broken when votes are cast later this month.
A breakthrough for MP Chris Hazzard’s party came in 2017 after years of trying to wrestle the seat from the SDLP.
For three decades the constituency was a solid SDLP heartland.
Former MP Eddie McGrady was later replaced by SDLP colleague Margaret Ritchie whose efforts to retain the seat fell short two years ago.
On that occasion Mr Hazzard polled 20,328 votes to Ms Ritchie’s 17,882.
Earlier this year Ms Ritchie accepted a seat in the House of Lords, bringing the curtain down on her long career in local politics.
Her replacement on the ticket is Michael Savage, who is a councillor on Newry, Mourne and Down council.
The party’s decision not to run one of its two higher profile assembly members for the seat could be seen as a surrender in a constituency it once counted as a sure bet.
Mr Savage, who is a business consultant, is well known within the SDLP and is a former party chief executive.
An interesting addition to the ticket is Aontú’s Paul Brady.
The republican party was formed by former by Sinn Féin TD Peadar Tóibín last year.
Mr Tóibín left Sinn Féin after claiming he had been ostracised because of his opposition to abortion.
Observers will be keen to see if Aontú’s anti-abortion stand will give it a platform to eat into Sinn Féin’s majority.
Alliance Party candidate Patrick Brown will hope to add to his colleague Andrew McMurray’s tally of 1,814 votes in 2017.
As in other areas the party will be hoping to cash in on a surge in support in recent elections.
The two main unionist parties will help make up the numbers in the mainly nationalist district.
A unity candidate would have little hope of success so the presence of two candidates makes it all but impossible.
The DUP will have Glyn Hanna on the ticket on December 12 and he will be hope to advance on the 8,867 votes picked up Diane Forsythe two years ago.
Jill MacAuley will carry the hopes of the UUP, although she will have her work cut out to substantially increase on the 2,002 votes bagged by Harold McKee last time out.
CANDIDATES:
Paul Brady (Aontú)
Patrick Brown (ALL
Glyn Hanna (DUP)
Chris Hazzard (SF)
Jill MacAuley (UUP)
Michael Savage (SDLP)
2017 share of vote:
SF - 39.9%
SDLP - 35.1%
DUP - 17.4%
UUP - 3.9%
ALL - 3.5%
Electorate: 79,006
Majority: 2,446
