Business

As prices soar, could this be the end of the Ulster fry as we know it?

By Gary McDonald Business Editor

THE price of your typical Ulster fry is a fifth higher than it was 12 months, economic data from Ulster Bank shows.

Shoppers have been facing sustained food price rises for a year now, and grocery price inflation in Northern Ireland stood at an eye-popping 12.8 per cent in March.

And the traditional cooked breakfast - which most people like to enjoy at least once a week - has been hit even harder, according to Ulster Bank economist Richard Ramsey.

His annual 'Ulster Fry Index' provides a breakdown of the price change of items that comprise a traditional cooked breakfast, and is seen as a useful way of engaging consumers in economics and help communicate what’s happening with inflation.

Overall, the price of a fry rose by 19.1 per cent year-on-year based on Ramsey's analysis, with not a single item on the plate showing a reduction. It was highest increase recorded since Ulster Bank began tracking the index in 2007.

It was led by sharp rises in milk (up 42.9 per cent), eggs (29.3 per cent), butter (25.4 per cent), sliced loaf (21.1 per cent), bacon (20.1 per cent) and sausages (19.3 per cent) - all staples of the Ulster fry.

Only coffee (up 7.1 per cent) and mushrooms (up 6.7 per cent) showed less than a double-digit percentage increase.

Rightly, some would argue, there is no price comparison on beans.

Ramsey says that while food inflation has been a real concern for households in recent times, these extremely high levels have perhaps peaked and may be set to ease.

“We know food makes up a significant proportion of household spending and is one of our most important economic drivers in terms of the region's food and drink industry, so understanding how the price of these popular food items is changing gives us a useful insight into the state of typical household finances and also the overall health of the agri-food industry.

The price of everything on the plate of an Ulster fry has increased, according to Ulster Bank data
The price of everything on the plate of an Ulster fry has increased, according to Ulster Bank data The price of everything on the plate of an Ulster fry has increased, according to Ulster Bank data

“What the Ulster Fry Index is telling us is that the price of everyday household essentials have risen beyond their previous peaks, and this coupled with rising energy bills is continuing to put a squeeze on consumer spending powers.

“While this is not good news in the here and now, we can expect these rises level off and we may even see some decreases in the next 12 months.

“But this will bring little comfort to those households who are struggling to contend with double-digit inflation and ongoing cost pressures on what have previously been considered every day or basic household items.”