It was notable how quickly the DUP was out of the traps to deny a claim by the chair of the umbrella group of illegal loyalist terrorist gangs, the self-appointed, self-described Loyalist Communities Council, that Arlene Foster said collapsing the Assembly was in the party’s thinking. Peter Weir denied categorically that the matter had been discussed at all.
Weir’s correct: the DUP have no intention of walking out of the Assembly. Aside from anything else, what would that achieve? How would that get rid of the Irish Protocol which is currently Arlene Foster’s stated aim? On the contrary, it would simply mean that the UK and EU could motor ahead implementing it without nonsense about refusing to build customs sheds and staff check points.
Then we heard about a ‘senior DUP member’ – why are anonymous sources always that meaningless word ‘senior’? – telling the BBC that there will be no Irish language act while the protocol remains. That too was swiftly denied with the DUP proclaiming its adherence to last year’s New Decade Same Approach deal. In fact Foster had recently said legislation on a wider "package of identity and cultural pieces", including the Irish language and Ulster Scots, would be introduced before the end of the current mandate.
All of which illustrates the disarray and turmoil in the DUP with the party leader exposed as devoid of a policy, lacking authority and too weak to exert any control. She now seems like a well-worn cushion which bears the imprint of the last person who sat on it.
Remember in January she was saying the protocol offered opportunities, then after the Lucid Talk poll on February 1 which showed a boost for the TUV and the Alliance party, the protocol suddenly spelt the end of life as unionists know it. She then stole Jim Allister’s three-point plan and made it into a five-point plan and disgracefully opened the door to the completely unrepresentative and subversive LCC. As Naomi Long said, "Proscribed terrorist organisations are not a legitimate part of our community. They aren't stakeholders to be consulted. They are a malignant force destroying our community. Our job as ministers is to eradicate paramilitarism, not give them a platform or legitimacy."
Of course the DUP is going to bring in an Acht na Gaelige in the autumn along with other measures to implement NDNA, not because they believe in their merits, but because they’re terrified that Sinn Féin will walk away because of DUP bad faith and intransigence and start campaigning for the 2022 Assembly elections. Many of their supporters would gladly endorse that approach for the DUP would have shown once again they are not a trustworthy partner.
What we’re seeing are the early stages of skirmishing before those 2022 elections. Keeping the Assembly up and running is important for the DUP because a vote on the protocol comes due in 2024; and that’s the only way to get rid of it, though it only means its return in another form for there must be a trade border in the Irish Sea. Without a strong showing in the elections unionists will be impotent. What’s happening now is intra-unionist sparring about the best election outcome.
As for SF, the elections are even more important. Given the state of the polls and the demographic changes here there’s a real chance that SF will become the largest party in Stormont making Michelle O’Neill first minister. SF’s great hope is of course not about the protocol being overturned in 2024, but that a general election in the Republic will return SF also as the largest party there so that Mary Lou McDonald will be taoiseach with Fianna Fáil as the junior partner. Judging by the manoeuvres of Jim O’Callaghan TD in recent days a lot of FF deputies think so too. The question then arises for the DUP, in those circumstances will they collapse the Assembly?
