SOMETIMES elite sport throws up moments that you just have to stand back and admire, even if they come at a personal cost.
On Sunday, Carlos Alcaraz and David Clifford conjured up a few, but in terms of absolute genius you will go a long way to find better than Rory McIlroy’s two iron into the final hole to set up a winning birdie at the Genesis Scottish Open.
That the Holywood man’s stunning finish denied this column an 80/1 winner in Robert MacIntyre was tough to take for a few moments, but it was hard to feel despondent given the manner of victory, and the identity of the victor.
Very few golfers over the years could have conjured up the shot McIlroy did – out of a divot, under the howling wind from just over 200 yards – and it once more silenced the doubters who say he can only turn it on when he gets conditions to suit.
It was the kind of shot that will have reminded the man himself how good he is, and also sent the bookies running for cover with The Open Championship coming right up.
Read More:
- Could Rory McIlroy be leaving Liverpool with the Claret Jug again?
- The Open Championship: The Irish contenders in the running for the Claret Jug
McIlroy made the short journey from the Renaissance Club to Royal Liverpool knowing not only that he is in tip-top form, but also that he has conquered this week’s venue before, clinching the Claret Jug at Hoylake nine years ago for the third of his four Majors to date.
He will go to post tomorrow as market leader, as he should, at no bigger than 15/2, just ahead of Scottie Scheffler, who slumped to a lowly tie for third in Scotland.
The pair’s performances of late have been superb, which has led to the prices of the other leading contenders drifting a little bit, with the other member of the ‘big three’, Jon Rahm, touching 14/1 at the time of writing.
The Spaniard opted to stay away from the Scottish Open, honing his links game at Ballybunion instead last week, and there is definitely a school of thought that says he did the right thing, given how difficult things turned out over the weekend in Scotland.
On the other hand, McIlroy will be buzzing and will surely feel he has a huge chance to end his nine-year wait for Major number five at a venue that has served him so well in the past.
He will also find a course that has been softened by rain, just like it was in 2014, which means his driver will come into play more often than it would on a dry links track.
It all looks good for Rory, but the pressure is huge, and it remains to be seen whether he can hole the crucial putts when vying for a Major title, or whether the flat stick will go cold as it did when leading with nine to play at St Andrews last term, and again at the US Open in Los Angeles last month.
Certainly, I see him as the man to beat and he has always won in clusters throughout his career, but I’m not excited about the 15/2 now on offer, and would suggest anyone who wants to back him might prefer to do so at 18/1 generally in the first round leader market.
McIlroy has been either first or second after day one in three of his last six Majors, and fifth in another, and if he is to win, he could follow the pattern of 2014 and last week by going to the front and simply staying there.
The times are set. The countdown begins.@PeterFinchGolf takes us through Thursday’s key groups. pic.twitter.com/hvOgtbtZNc
— The Open (@TheOpen) July 18, 2023
In terms of alternatives to the favourite, I thought long and hard about Rahm, but have just edged towards the man who denied McIlroy last term – Cameron Smith.
Nobody has successfully defended the Claret Jug since Padraig Harrington in 2008, while Tiger Woods also completed back-to-back Open wins at this week’s venue in 2006.
Smith broke McIlroy’s heart 12 months ago and then broke a few more by jumping ship to LIV Golf, but unlike many who took the Saudi money he has stayed competitive on the biggest stages and seems to have timed his run very well with The Open in mind.
The Australian won the LIV event in London 10 days ago, following on from his fourth in the US Open and ninth in the US PGA, on each occasion using his wand of a putter to great effect, while his approach play has also been excellent of late.
Smith grew up playing coastal golf in Queensland so the winds that are sure to blow in this week won’t bother him, while he won with rain around at Sawgrass last term and is fired up for the defence of his title, saying he was nearly in tears handing back the Claret Jug on Monday.
There is every chance it could be returned to him come Sunday, however, and at 16/1 with Betway, who are paying a fifth of the odds for 12 places, he ranks as a rock-solid each-way bet at least.
Rock-solid is a term that could always be used to describe Brooks Koepka, and the modern Major machine should also be on the shortlist at 20/1 with Sky Bet.
Rickie Fowler, Tommy Fleetwood and Tyrrell Hatton were all close to being selected – with the latter two delivering on each-way tips in Scotland.
Yet they are all priced at around the same odds as Koepka, and none of them have quite proved their killer instinct in the big ones yet, while Brooks has five to his name.
Like Smith, he has been plying his trade on the LIV circuit but it hasn’t harmed his Major performances as we’re only two months removed from his win at the US PGA, which came after a second to Rahm at Augusta.
Koepka was also 17th at the US Open even though he despised LA Country Club, and has since been third at Valderrama, a course that demands total control from tee-to-green.
He is in fine form and has plenty of links pedigree to fall back on, not least when fourth at Portrush in 2019 when the conditions were similar to what is in store over the weekend at Hoylake, so Koepka should be backed at the 20s.
Shane Lowry was famously the man who won in the rain at Portrush four years ago and I simply can’t get away from him here, even though he under-performed in the final round in Scotland.
Indeed, that may end up being a blessing as dropped shots at his first two holes on Sunday saw his winning chances go, and thoughts surely will have turned to this week from there on.
For a change, his performance in Scotland was based on putting, but in general Lowry has had the ball on a string for months and his imagination around the greens will come to the fore at a blustery Royal Liverpool.
We don’t really need to go over his pedigree in bad weather, suffice to say there are few better in the world, while Lowry recorded his first Major top-10 at Hoylake in 2014 and has been saving his best for the big weeks ever since.
At 30/1 with Betway it is worth keeping the faith, while I’ll do likewise with MacIntyre at 66/1.
The left-hander will be full of confidence after proving he has what it takes to shine in elite company in his national championship on Sunday.
His runner-up effort alone might have sealed a Ryder Cup debut, but another big week would make totally sure, and MacIntyre may well back up the theories that he can become a world class performer.
He showed again what a natural links player he is, having also finished in the top-10 in consecutive Opens at Portrush and Royal St George’s, and there is still enough juice in the price to go back in again here.
Adam Scott finished in the top-10 at Hoylake in both 2006 and 2014, and it is a testament to his enduring excellence as a ball-striker that he is still churning out big performances, and he has to be worth a look at 80/1 (Boylesports) given that he is putting very well at present.
Scott missed the cut by a shot in Scotland, with a quadruple-bogey on the opening day proving costly, but he hit back with a fine 67 on Friday and then had two extra days to re-acquaint himself with Hoylake.
He could run into place at least given his links pedigree, while at a massive price Ewen Ferguson may be worth a look.
The Scot won the Boys Amateur Championship at Hoylake 10 years ago and has since become a classy DP World Tour player, winning twice last year including in the wind at the Qatar Masters, an event that has often been a guide for the Open.
Ferguson was fourth at the British Masters and then 12th in Scotland on Sunday, so he might just be the pick of the big outsiders.
Of course, this is a week where nearly everyone watching will want the favourite to capture the Claret Jug, even it comes at a personal cost.
HAVE AN OPEN PUNT
Cameron Smith, e/w, 16/1 (Betway, 12 places);
Brooks Koepka, e/w, 20/1 (Sky Bet, eight places);
Shane Lowry, e/w, 30/1 (Betway);
Robert MacIntyre, e/w, 66/1 (Betway);
Adam Scott, e/w, 80/1 (Boylesports, eight places);
Ewen Ferguson, e/w, 225/1 (Paddy Power, 10 places); top-20 finish, 13/2 (Paddy Power);
Rory McIlroy, first round leader, e/w, 18/1 (General)
