AFTER what can only be described as another turbulent week for professional golf, avid followers of the sport will be glad to see the focus turn back to on-course events at the US Open.
Last week’s shock announcement that the PGA Tour, DP World Tour and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund – backers of the breakaway LIV circuit – are to come together under one massive umbrella caught everyone completely on the hop.
Countless column inches, millions of tweets and most of the press conferences at the RBC Canadian Open were dedicated to the seismic news, with the players just as unaware of the behind-closed-doors meetings as those of us watching from afar.
What the future of the professional game will look like is anyone’s guess at present, with all sides claiming to have come out of the negotiations with the upper hand, while the US Senate are looking into the deal, with the word ‘monopoly’ lingering close to the surface.
One way or another, it seems the leading players should be coming together more often from the start of 2024, and from a purely sporting point of view that has to be seen as a good thing.
Thus far in 2023, that has only happened at the Majors, with Jon Rahm holding off LIV ‘rebel’ Brooks Koepka at The Masters in April, before the latter claimed his third US PGA success at Oak Hill in May.
Come June, the focus is all on the US Open, widely acknowledged as the toughest of the big four, and the usual suspects are at the head of the betting as we head to a
first-time Major venue.
Los Angeles Country Club plays host from tomorrow, with only the most fanatical of followers likely to have the stamina to watch from start to finish given the eight-hour time difference between Ireland and the West Coast of America.
Incredibly, this is the first US Open to be played in Los Angeles since Ben Hogan won at Riviera in 1948, with the exclusive LA Country Club believed to have turned down the honour on a number of occasions.
The North Course on which this week’s action will unfold is new to almost everyone in the field, although the 2017 Walker Cup was played at the venue, with a US team containing Scottie Scheffler and Collin Morikawa destroying GB&I.
Scheffler goes to post as the clear favourite here at no bigger than 7/1, and what he finds should really suit his game, such has been his
tee-to-green prowess of late.
The North Course has all the potential to live up to the beastly US Open venues of the past, where anyone bettering par over the four days should finish high up on the leaderboard.
It’s a strange lay-out in many ways, with five par-threes lying in wait, although at 290 yards most players might be happy enough to walk off the 11th with a four.
In total, the track will stretch to over 7,400 yards as a par-70, so short hitters will struggle to keep up, even with fast and firm conditions promised, while fairways are generous before the test gets tougher closer to the putting surfaces.
Large, deep bunkers await any wayward approach shots, while plenty of wild grass also surrounds the greens, so elite iron players should come to the fore.
That certainly applies to Scheffler, who is ripping up the record books with his long game, before handing back shots to the field on the greens, and those putting woes alone mean he can’t be backed at 7/1, although if he has even a decent week with his flat stick he could run away with this, as a second and two thirds in his last three events without putting well clearly suggests.
Rory McIlroy has a fine US Open record and will have his backers at around 12/1, but his short irons have been playing up and that would be a major hindrance here.
With little course form to go on, the focus has to be on players who go well in Californian conditions, and with PGA Tour events held each year at nearby Riviera – only six kilometres away – and Torrey Pines in San Diego, at least we have an angle in.
And sometimes it pays not to ignore the obvious, so the first port of call has to be LA native Max Homa at 28/1.
I’m surprised the price isn’t a bit shorter, although the fact the world number seven has yet to really compete at a Major perhaps explains the reasoning.
If he is ever to go close though, it surely has to be this week in his hometown on a track he knows better than anyone else, having shot a course record 61 here in a leading collegiate event in 2013.
This week’s set-up will preclude anyone going even close to that number, but that level of familiarity is still a massive plus, while Homa’s record in California in general means he can’t be ignored.
He has won four of his last eight starts in the Golden State, including the Genesis at Riviera in 2021 and this year’s Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines.
While Homa hasn’t been playing quite as well as he did at the start of the season, he was eighth at the Wells Fargo last month and ninth on his last outing at the Charles Schwab, and he’s a truly elite iron player who can go very close.
It’s also interesting to note that he opted out of the elevated Memorial two weeks ago, with the focus surely on performing in front of the LA galleries, so at 28/1 there is so much to like about his chances.
If anyone’s Californian CV is as good as Homa’s it has to be Jon Rahm, and it’s just impossible to leave the Spaniard out of calculations at 10/1 with Sky Bet.
Winner of the last US Open to be played in the Golden State, at Torrey Pines in 2021, Rahm saw off Homa at Riviera earlier this term to seal Genesis glory, making it five California wins since his PGA Tour victory in the Farmers Insurance in 2017.
The Spaniard has been vocal about his love for the area, and that should bring about a strong run for a third Major title on a course that will really play to his strengths of power and placement off the tee and accuracy with iron in hand.
Like Scheffler, his putter ran cold at The Memorial last time out, but everything else was in fine working order and I expect a huge showing, and it would be no shock to see Rahm and Homa fighting it out down the stretch, just as they did at Riviera in February.
Collin Morikawa is another LA native who needs total respect, with his razor-sharp iron play and Major pedigree in his home state – winning the US PGA at Harding Park in San Francisco in 2020 – making him a big runner at 30/1 (888sport).
That price would have been shorter had he not been forced to withdraw with back spasms when right in the Memorial mix going into the final day, and while you’re trusting his fitness if backing him, the odds make the risk worthwhile for an elite performer who won four points from four in the Walker Cup six years ago and has since collected two Majors.
I’ll also put up a third Southern Californian in Rickie Fowler, who remains a Major maiden but could barely have gone any closer over the years.
Fowler is firmly on an upward trend after a spell in the doldrums, even if he’s not quite back to the levels of 2014 when he finished in the top-five at all four Majors, notably coming second in the US Open at a firm, fast Pinehurst.
His resurgence in the last six months has largely been down to exceptional iron play, and only a cold putter stopped Fowler finishing even better than ninth at The Memorial.
Sixth previously at the Charles Schwab, it’s now seven top-20 finishes in eight events, and Fowler could easily get in the mix at 45/1.
I’m not prepared to give up on Justin Rose yet either after he delivered an each-way return that looked like it could be a win at the Canadian Open on Sunday night.
Like Fowler, Rose is rejuvenated this term, winning in California at Pebble Beach for his first PGA Tour success since 2019, when he took the Genesis title at Riviera.
That Golden State pedigree bodes well, while his long play has been exceptional and he loves a tough test, having won the US Open 10 years ago at Merion in Philadelphia and performed well in each of the Majors this year so far, with a 16th at Augusta followed by ninth in the PGA.
He definitely has the patience for this war of attrition, something viewers on this side of the Atlantic will need in abundance to see the 2023 US Open to a conclusion in the early hours of Monday morning.
US OPEN SELECTIONS
Max Homa, e/w, 28/1 (Bet365, eight places);
Jon Rahm, 10/1 (Sky Bet);
Collin Morikawa, e/w, 30/1 (888sport, eight places);
Rickie Fowler, e/w, 45/1 (William Hill, 10 places)
Justin Rose, e/w, 35/1 (General); first round leader, e/w, 50/1 (Unibet, seven places)
Homa/Rahm reverse forecast, 125/1 (Sky Bet)
