Football

All-Ireland SFC Qualifying round 4B - Down v Monaghan: all the analysis ahead of today's Croke Park rematch

Kevin McKernan avoided a suspension for picking up three black cards and will line out for Down against Monaghan today
Kevin McKernan avoided a suspension for picking up three black cards and will line out for Down against Monaghan today Kevin McKernan avoided a suspension for picking up three black cards and will line out for Down against Monaghan today

MAN OF THE MOMENT

Kevin McKernan (Down)

HAD last week’s appeal not gone in his favour, the Burren man might not have been playing today.

McKernan had looked set the miss the Monaghan match through suspension after accumulating three black cards between League and Championship, but the proposed ban was overturned as Down supporters breathed a huge sigh of relief.

His exit just after half-time effectively sealed Down’s fate in the Ulster final against Tyrone, as the 29-year-old is perhaps the most crucial component of Eamonn Burns’s team.

McKernan’s return during the League led to a dramatic upturn in Down’s fortunes in Division Two, and he was at his inspirational best as the Mournemen overhauled Monaghan last month, carrying the ball out of defence time and again and kicking two superb scores.

If he is at his best against today, Down will fancy their chances of doing the double over the Farneymen.

TEAM TALK

Down (probable): M Cunningham; N McParland, G McGovern, D O’Hagan; D O’Hanlon, C Mooney, C McGovern; P Turley, N Donnelly; K McKernan, C Maginn, S Millar; J Johnston, C Harrison, R Johnston

EAMONN Burns has sprung a few selection surprises to date – giving Anthony Doherty a debut against Armagh, starting Connaire Harrison that day too despite not having kicked a ball during the League.

The two-time All-Ireland winner is expected to keep faith with the team that got them over the line against the same opposition in the Ulster semi-final, though there has been some talk that Bryansford’s David McKibbin could start.

Monaghan: R Beggan; F Kelly, D Wylie, R Wylie; C Walshe, N McAdam, K O'Connell; K Hughes, D Hughes; G Doogan, D Malone, S Carey; O Duffy, J McCarron, C McManus

MONAGHAN boss Malachy O’Rourke has resisted the urge to change his starting lining-up, making just one positional switch from their Qualifier victory over Carlow a fortnight ago.

Shane Carey moves up to the half-forward line, with Neil McAdam going to centre half-back.

From the 15 that started against Down last time, neither Vinny Corey or Conor McCarthy play, with Gavin Doogan and Dermot Malone taking their places.

KEY BATTLE

Connaire Harrison (Down) v Drew Wylie (Monaghan)

GAVE Charlie Vernon plenty of uncomfortable moments in Down’s Ulster Championship opener against Armagh, but it was his performance against Drew Wylie that catapulted Harrison into the public eye.

It’s not too often you see the Ballybay man bossed, but Harrison scored three superb points and led the line brilliantly as the Mournemen upset the odds.

Perhaps he benefitted from the element of surprise that day, and the real test will be whether the Glasdrumman forward can exert the same sort of influence at Croke Park today.

DOWN TACTICAL TAKE

WITH the element of surprise gone, Down boss Eamonn Burns will have to come up with something else to catch Monaghan unaware for a second time this summer.

Burns had clearly identified that a running game wasn’t going to work against the Farneymen last time out, as there were so many Monaghan bodies through the middle ready to gobble up anybody in a red and black jersey.

Down negated that by forcing turnovers before breaking at pace, kick-passing to good effect and getting numbers forward to feed off a powerhouse full-forward performance from Connaire Harrison.

They tried something similar against Tyrone and fell short. The Red Hands’ relentless yet disciplined tackling left the Down forwards with very little to work off, and they are unlikely to get as much joy against Monaghan today.

MONAGHAN TACTICAL TAKE

LOSING to Down in the Ulster semi-final may have been a huge shock, but Malachy O’Rourke won’t have got too carried away. With a few tweaks, he will be confident Monaghan can come out on the right side of the result at the second time of asking.

In the early stages in Armagh, Monaghan took only two of nine scoring chances as Kieran Hughes ruled the skies. They cannot afford to be so wasteful today.

Also, the level of Down’s physicality undoubtedly took the Farney players by surprise. With everybody expecting a handy enough victory, perhaps complacency also played a part.

O’Rourke isn’t about to start revolutionising Monaghan’s tactics just to get revenge today. They will do what they do – pack the middle, put more pressure on the ball inside their own 45 and try to get Conor McManus involved as much as possible.

LAST CHAMPIONSHIP MEETING

2017 Ulster SFC semi-final: Down 1-14 Monaghan 0-15

JUST over a month ago, on June 24, Monaghan came into their Ulster semi-final showdown with Down as huge favourites.

All the talk was about how the Farney would fare in the final against Tyrone, who had blitzed Donegal six days previous. The Mournemen ripped up the script, weathering an early storm before taking control towards the end of the first half.

A Darragh O’Hanlon penalty after the break gave them a seven point cushion, though Monaghan battled back and Down had to cling on to book an unexpected final date with the Red Hands.

LAST 10 CHAMPIONSHIP MEETINGS

2017 Ulster SFC semi-final: Down 1-14 Monaghan 0-15

2016 Ulster SFC quarter-final: Monaghan 0-22 Down 0-9

2012 Ulster SFC semi-final: Down 1-14 Monaghan 1-13

2007 Ulster SFC quarter-final: Down 1-15 Monaghan 2-15

2003 Ulster SFC semi-final: Down 1-12 Monaghan 0-13

1996 Ulster SFC quarter-final: Monaghan 0-9 Down 0-14

1994 Ulster SFC semi-final: Down 0-14 Monaghan 0-8

1990 Ulster SFC quarter-final: Down 3-11 Monaghan 1-12

1989 Ulster SFC quarter-final: Monaghan 0-9 Down 1-14

1988 Ulster SFC semi-final: Monaghan 1-11 Down 0-9

WHO’S THE REF?

Maurice Deegan (Laois)

THE man who refereed last year’s All-Ireland final replay has only taken control of one Championship game so far this summer – the all-action Qualifier clash between Mayo and Derry.

Generally kept a lid on a frenetic contest, today’s game could be just as hot and heavy if the first meeting between Down and Monaghan is anything to go by.

Six yellow cards were flashed in Armagh, though some borderline challenges went unpunished. The Laois man will be prepared for a potentially fiery contest.

WEATHER WATCH

CONDITIONS at Croke Park won’t be dissimilar to those when the counties met at the Athletic Grounds last month. Cloudy but with sunny intervals, players can expect a temperature of around 19 degrees when they take the field. Showers are a possibility beforehand so the pitch could be slippy – especially in U2-affected areas following last week’s concert.

BETTING BOX

Monaghan 4/11

Draw 9/1

Down 3/1

Handicap

Monaghan (-4) evs

Draw (-4) 10/1

Down (+4) 10/11

First goalscorer

Conor McManus (Monaghan) 9/2

Connaire Harrison (Down) 9/1

No goalscorer 6/1