THE obituaries have already been written, now for the longest of goodbyes – but where do the Republic of Ireland turn next?
Reading from a pre-prepared statement on Thursday, FAI CEO Jonathan Hill confirmed what everybody already knew, without even having to say it explicitly.
Stephen Kenny will remain in charge for the final three games of the already-doomed Euro 2024 campaign, before a friendly against New Zealand on November 21. A review meeting is to follow in the weeks after, subsequent to which the axe will surely fall.
If that Tuesday night at the Aviva does represent Kenny’s last stand as Republic of Ireland manager, it will bring an end to three years when hope and giddy ambition was ultimately lost to the cold, hard reality of results.
Ah but what about the way we’re playing?
You still have to win.
At least we’re trying to play the right way.
It’s no good having the ball if you can’t score.
He’s changing the culture.
Culture shmulture, you want to go to big tournaments.
Dinosaur.
Hipster.
And so on.
There are plenty who claim Stephen Kenny, as a homegrown manager who excelled with Dundalk in the League of Ireland, has been given an easier ride by sections of the Irish media than his predecessors.
Martin O’Neill, perhaps unsurprisingly, was only too happy to add his voice to that cause last week, just as the pressure was resting more heavily on Kenny’s shoulders by the day.
And, in terms of critical analysis, it may be true. The knives came out in certain quarters, but not all. A period of grace was granted on the basis of his commitment to evolving Ireland’s style from the hoofball of O’Neill and Giovanni Trappatoni to possession-based penetration, and the hope of something more progressive.
He asked for time, and he got it.
Yet scrutiny has been inescapable from the day and hour he stepped into the role, to the point that his entire reign never quite moved beyond the feeling of Stephen Kenny being on trial; as though the job was never truly his.
The handover from Mick McCarthy was perhaps a portent of things to come, that clumsy arrangement the last remnants of the John Delaney era as Kenny waited in the wings while the Euro 2020 qualification campaign played out against the backdrop of the Covid pandemic.
When he finally did take over the reins following McCarthy’s earlier-than-intended exit, the Dubliner’s first outing as senior Republic of Ireland manager was a 1-1 draw with Bulgaria at an empty Aviva.
Not exactly the kind of momentum-building start anyone would hope for.
In those early days, though, there were signs of something building. A month after leading the side out for the first time, Ireland were unlucky to lose to Slovakia on penalties in a Euro 2020 play-off semi-final.
Even the 3-2 World Cup qualifying defeat to Serbia was palatable in the context of where we hoped Ireland might be headed. But when Luxembourg left the Aviva with a 1-0 win days later, alarm bells started to sound – plucky away performances followed by underwhelming results at home could no longer cut the mustard.
A pattern was set and became hard to shift. A poor result would turn up the temperature for a time, only for a few green shoots the next day to temporarily placate the naysayers. But that’s all it ever was - one big carousel of uncertainty and mistrust.
The run of results Kenny so craved would never come, from one campaign to the next. Bad luck? No doubt, it has been there in spades. From that Covid-hit beginning right up to the absence of teenage sensation Evan Ferguson days before last week’s make-or-break Euro 2024 qualifier in Paris, Kenny hasn’t been dealt the best hand.
But his demise has felt inevitable for longer than it should have, to the point it has become unsettling, and uncomfortable as the end nears.
Martin O’Neill’s sparring sessions with RTE’s Tony O’Donoghue were watch-through-your-fingers awkward because of the Derry man’s bullish, borderline arrogant approach.
It has got to the stage now where the post-match interrogation feels like a form of cruelty. Soundbites and winning smiles have never been Kenny’s thing, his on-screen demeanour becoming the subject of ridicule in some quarters and doing little to win over a growing army of detractors as one spirit-sapping loss followed the next.
I was one of those who wanted to believe it was possible for the Republic of Ireland to evolve, to have confidence as footballers that translated into better performances and better results, but it was always going to be a huge ask. That’s not to say it can’t happen, moreso that it won’t under the current regime.
So, standing at a familiar crossroads, where do the FAI turn now?
Steve Bruce, depressingly, heads the betting with one prominent bookmakers. There are other familiar names in there who get rolled out any time there is a vacancy on the horizon – Sam Allardyce, Rafa Benitez, Tony Pulis (!). Even Neil Lennon is entering that territory.
Then there’s Roy Keane. Does anybody truly want to see that any more? The former Manchester United midfielder has a lot of ground to make up if ever to be considered serious management material again.
Of the other names being mentioned, therefore, it is Lee Carsley’s that jumps out. The kind of guts or glory midfielder fans could warm to during his playing pomp, he won 40 caps with the Republic and has long been talked of a potential manager at some point in the future.
Having served his time with youth coaching roles at Coventry, Brentford, Manchester City and Birmingham, during the summer the 49-year-old led England’s U21s to European glory for the first time since 1984.
There is a sense that he understands the modern player, and the modern game. Tactical fluidity, allied to an understanding of the Irish mentality, and the Irish system, make him the outstanding candidate should, as expected, Kenny’s contract not be renewed.
The long goodbye is already under way, now the FAI must strike while the iron is hot. They cannot afford to lose any more ground.
