One man has difficulty remembering names and events. The other tends to make up names and events. One is 81. The other is 77. Neither of them, albeit for different reasons, is fit to be President of the United States (still the most influential role in world politics).
The fact that the contest on November 5 will, almost certainly, be another run-off between them is entirely down to the dysfunction and division at the heart of America today.
Joe Biden remains the Democratic candidate because the party believes he is probably the only person they have capable of beating Trump. He beat him last time and will attract the anybody-but-Trump vote this time.
And Trump will be endorsed by the Republican establishment because trying to derail his candidacy would simply rip the party apart from top to bottom. Anyway, what party would toss aside a candidate who actually increases in popularity the longer the charge sheet against him grows?
This is democracy in dystopian form. This presidential campaign, like the last one, has precious little to do with governance and everything to do with who controls the culture agenda.
The battle won’t end on November 5. If Biden wins it is likely that the Trump base – accounting for millions of voters who never used to take part in elections – will refuse to accept the result. Again. But this time they will know that Trump won’t have another chance four years down the line.
If Trump wins he will be dictating policy from November 6. He won’t wait for the official swearing-in ceremony in January 2025. He will be issuing statements on social media and firing warning shots at Nato, the EU and anyone else who catches his eye.
He will be the world leader making the news and dominating just about every debate. He has already been hinting that he has strategies to sort out Ukraine and the Middle East; but so far he hasn’t gone much beyond the cryptic soundbite.
A Trump victory will also encourage populism across the Western world. He’s a man who likes lickspittles and photo opportunities and will probably go out of his way to promote political/electoral disrupters across a range of countries. The sort of leader, in fact, who would rather be seen dining with Nigel Farage than with Keir Starmer. He came to power in the US by manipulating the shifting dynamics of the culture war and will be happy for ‘allies’ to do it elsewhere.
This is democracy in dystopian form. This presidential campaign, like the last one, has precious little to do with governance and everything to do with who controls the culture agenda
But how will he deal with China and Russia, particularly at a time when military/intelligence experts are warning that the world is closer to a major showdown than at any time since either 1914 or 1939? Who knows? In a multi-polar superpower scenario he may well be tempted to opt for isolation and allow the others to sort out their own problems.
When Trump thinks, he thinks of himself first. Like all businesspeople he looks at the profit line – personal and political in his case – before making a call. And most of the evidence suggests that he doesn’t think its America’s job to be either the policeman or peacemaker.
What he does know is that there is often profit to be made from chaos and instability; especially if it is all happening away from your own boundaries. He knows, too, that the Democrats don’t have the sort of evangelical support base to do to him – if he wins – what his base will do to them if he loses. He enjoys being a disrupter. He enjoys defying expectation. When he said during his last presidential run that standing on the streets of New York and shooting people wouldn’t cost him a vote, it shocked. Today, who would be surprised?
It’s hard to see how America wins on November 5. Neither man can unify. More worryingly, I’m not sure the increasingly polarised political/electoral/cultural blocs are actually ready for compromise and coming together. Which suits Trump very nicely, of course.