We arguably have a choice between three scenarios.
1. Northern Ireland joins Great Britain: there appears to be an assumption by unionists that the natural outworking of the DUP strategy in refusing to nominate a Deputy First Minister will lead to Northern Ireland joining Great Britain in full-fledged Brexit. This might be characterised as the ERG world view.
There are serious problems with this scenario. The ERG has now had six years in which to provide evidence that Brexit is working.
Instead Great Britain now has a record trade deficit of 8 per cent and far higher with the EU.
Analysis of both the dollar-sterling and euro-sterling exchange rates during the 21st century indicates that the switch from a Labour to a Conservative government resulted in a 33 per cent devaluation in sterling such that there is now almost parity between these currencies, ie the evidence suggests the markets don’t trust a Conservative government.
This means that imported goods and services cost us almost a third more than they did.
This trend seems likely to continue.
If the British government acts unilaterally to disavow the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement it seems likely that this will lead to a trade war with the EU that will disproportionately harm the British economy, and so there is no incentive for the EU to agree concessions.
2. Great Britain joins Northern Ireland: unless the current government can quickly turn around the British economy it seems increasingly likely there will be clarion calls for Great Britain to join Northern Ireland inside the Single Market subject to the European Court of Justice.
If this happens it seems likely that Brexiteers will blame unionists for this reversal.
3. Northern Ireland joins EU: this appears to be an opportune moment to argue that Northern Ireland joins the EU as a full-fledged Member
State in its own right, and, because of the Good Friday or Belfast Agreement, remain a member of ‘the Union’.
It can be argued that the 1998 Good Friday Agreement is an Act of Union by another name that accommodates the Republic of Ireland as a sovereign nation and full Member State of the EU while also being an integral member of the British-Irish Council.
We could negotiate to have the exact same terms for Northern Ireland to be both a full Member State of the EU and a sovereign nation within the British-Irish Council.
What do you think?
DR BERNARD MULHOLLAND
Belfast BT9
Galling to hear Sinn Féin lauding GFA
As someone dedicated to devolution and upholding the Good Friday Agreement (GFA), who worked tirelessly alongside David Trimble in succeeding to convince unionists and loyalists to support peace and to stabilise constitutional politics, it is galling to hear Sinn Féin today lauding the agreement when they sought to destroy it at birth. Even more so that they are cheer leaders for joint authority or Irish autonomy here.
It is fair to say that when unionists voted for devolution via the agreement, no one considered it would end up with the SDLP ousted and power sharing with Sinn Féin as the not-so-new normal. Nor was it envisaged that every topic under the sun would be weaponised by rampant republicans out to prove a point – if only to themselves.
Unionists cannot comprehend how or why the previously reliable SDLP supporter ditched constitutional nationalism for a Marxist leaning ultra republican party. That of course is their democratic prerogative but it is very hard to understand. No unionist conversion to a loyalist party is likely to happen.
What has changed is the growing number of moderate unionists and others like me who have transferred their support to the DUP. And yes I do see the irony in doing so when the DUP vigorously opposed the agreement also.
Give that unionists have had enough of compromise and concessions extending the use by date of Sinn Féin demands, is it too much to expect that nationalists are capable of understanding the intensity of the unionist total rejection of the Northern Ireland Protocol?
Could the rescue of devolution and the agreement be initiated by nationalists accommodating the removal of the protocol ? Is an all round re-think of how unionist and nationalist put together a lasting executive possible? Are nationalists interested in compromise to meet unionist demands?
DAVID McNARRY
Strangford, Co Down
Unionism versus Irish nationalism
Having a life-long affiliation either to unionism or Irish nationalism is I feel quite an absurd position to take. We’ve seen with the UK’s Brexit policy, that union with Britain now means an existence outside the EU, whereas before 2020 when the UK was theoretically still inside the EU, union with Britain meant being part of the EU. It’s like some people are unionist or nationalist no matter what – no matter how circumstances change, and no matter how self-harming a lifelong adherence to something can become. Irish nationalism I feel was championed by historical discrimination against Catholics in Ireland during British rule. This discrimination is largely if not wholly absent now, yet Irish nationalism still thrives. Union with Britain was largely a response to fears that in the event of a united Ireland Protestants would be deprived of their freedoms. These fears are largely unfounded today partly through the decline of the influence of the Catholic Church in Ireland and also through globalisation which has lessened the importance of localism. Yet unionism still thrives.
LOUIS SHAWCROSS
Hillsborough, Co Down
Election date debacle
I fail to understand the furore, however justified, regarding the U-turn by Secretary of State Chris Heaton-Harris over the local election date debacle. Will we never lose our gullibility concerning the ineffectual political appointments that Westminster foists on our tortured state. The present secretary is just another one dimensional politician in a long line. We will never forget Karen Bradley, who, like the present incumbent, did not know if she was coming or going.
These political appointments may well seem appropriate to the powers that be - after all, our two main partisan political parties, Sinn Féin and the DUP, have displayed the same one dimensional politics, and between them have succeeded in depriving the electorate of political stability by closing Stormont for a number of years.
WILSON BURGESS
Derry City
