Leo Varadkar’s startling announcement that he is standing down as taoiseach and Fine Gael leader for unspecified “personal and political” reasons raises fresh questions about the sustainability of the coalition government and will only increase the clamour for an early general election.
Mr Varadkar said that “after careful consideration and some soul searching” he felt someone else would be best-placed to secure the re-election of the Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Green Party coalition.
After seven years in office, Mr Varadkar confessed: “I don’t feel I’m the best person for that job anymore.” There will be those who feel that sentiment - remarkably self-aware for a senior political figure - should also apply to the government he leads. The housing crisis and health waiting lists are a reminder that for all the Euro-billions in its budget surplus, the Republic has not become a fairer place during those seven years.
“We give it everything until we can’t anymore and then we have to move on,” said the two-time taoiseach, who was at times emotional - understandably, given the weight of the moment - during an address which failed to persuasively set out his reasons for deciding to leave the political stage at the age of just 45.
A more charismatic or compelling replacement is hardly waiting in the wings, at least judging by the Fine Gael cabinet colleagues who flanked Mr Varadkar during his Leinster House announcement.
Simon Harris and Helen McEntee may be among those who fancy their chances, given that Simon Coveney has ruled himself out of the running. But the party may well also ask if any of them are really an upgrade on Mr Varadkar, or have the skills necessary to overhaul Sinn Féin’s commanding lead in the opinion polls.
Leo Varadkar was the youngest taoiseach, the first to be openly gay and the first of half-Indian descent. History is more likely to remember him as a symbol of modern Ireland than for his political achievements
Mr Varadkar foresees the new Fine Gael leader moving smoothly into the taoiseach’s office. Aontú's Peadar Tóibín says this makes it look like the job is being “passed around like snuff at a wake”.
There is every possibility that the electorate will feel the same, and that a drubbing will be handed to the coalition parties in June’s local and European Parliament elections. That will further increase calls for an early general election, already growing in volume after the double referendum loss.
As far as Northern Ireland is concerned, Mr Varadkar uniquely antagonised unionists but was hardly beloved by nationalists. He said there would be a united Ireland in his lifetime, but it is difficult to point to anything he did as taoiseach to help achieve this.
Nonetheless, Mr Varadkar has been a mould-breaking taoiseach: the youngest, the first to be openly gay and the first of half-Indian descent. History is more likely to remember him for being a symbol of modern Ireland than for any of his political achievements.
