WHILE by-elections are often used to send a warning shot across the bow of government, Labour’s victory in two traditional Tory seats on Thursday looks more like a direct hit.
Rishi Sunak’s administration has sustained substantial damage, both real and reputational.
The Conservatives lost a 24,000 majority in Mid-Bedfordshire, a seat they have held for more than 90 years. Labour also overturned a 19,000 majority in Tamworth. The Liberal Democrats ran them a close second, but the real story is that the Tory vote was down by 30 per cent.
Although by-election results can be misleading, the Conservatives have now lost three to Labour in three months, on swings above 20 per cent. The last time something like that happened was in the run-up to Tony Blair’s 1997 victory over John Major.
History does not necessarily repeat itself, but the downward trend of Tory support suggests that the political records of their five prime ministers in the past 13 years are finally catching up with them.
Boris Johnson did the most damage and there was an understandable element of pay-back in Thursday’s results. His personal and political behaviour during the pandemic is now being punished at the ballot box. The effects of Covid will linger long in the British political air.
But although the move away from the Tories is big in terms of numbers, it does not represent a huge swing in terms of political beliefs. Keir Starmer’s Labour is closely aligned to that of Tony Blair, which offers an acceptable alternative to disillusioned Tory supporters.
While he may have Blair’s policies, he lacks his personality. Starmer’s wooden style in speaking and greeting makes him a difficult product to sell to the electorate. However, he is now in a strong position to be the next British prime minister.
If there is to be a future Labour government, it must undo the history of heartless Tory cuts in public expenditure and it must recognise the particular social and economic difficulties which Conservative rule has inflicted here in the north.
While a Labour government may be welcomed by the hard-pressed English public, his belief in a strong United Kingdom will do little to endear him to the Celtic fringe here and in Scotland and Wales. He opposes Scottish independence and he has already sought to put a border poll on the long finger.
So while we might offer three cheers for the damage inflicted on the Tories, perhaps Starmer only deserves two. A third cheer will depend on what he actually delivers, both economically and constitutionally, if and when he achieves office.
