In military terms, the Russian invasion of Ukraine can only be seen as a war of naked aggression.
At a political level, it reflects Vladimir Putin’s reluctance to seek a diplomatic solution and in economic terms, it constitutes a major threat to Europe, particularly in the supply of oil and gas.
The situation has arisen from the collapse of communism in the former USSR in the early 1990s. Following national independence, many states, including Ukraine, decided to ally themselves with the west.
So what had been a buffer zone for Russia in Eastern Europe became pro-western territory, which Mr Putin now claims is a threat to his country’s security.
The way to address that perceived threat is through diplomacy, as advocated by Ireland, other EU states and the US.
Russia has rejected that option, presumably aware that Nato will not respond to the invasion of Ukraine at a military level and in the hope that it can ride out the effects of western economic sanctions.
It is not clear how effective those sanctions will be. They may need to be bolstered by a more widespread diplomatic isolation of Russia on the world stage.
Of course, Mr Putin may retaliate. Russia supplies over 30 per cent of the EU’s oil and gas. It is unlikely to cut that supply, because it has used energy availability to extend its influence within the EU, particularly with Germany.
It is more likely that Russia will increase oil and gas prices. Together with volatile market forces at times of political uncertainty, this will lead to price increases across a range of goods and services in much of the western world.
We may be 2,000 miles from the war, but it will adversely affect our cost of living.
Meanwhile in Ukraine, more tragically, the war is costing human lives. It is likely that military and civilian resistance to the invasion will be fierce and prolonged and that Russia will face significant challenges in moving from military occupation to political control. History shows that armies cannot subdue a people.
The only solution is for Russia to withdraw its forces from Ukraine immediately, apologise for its aggression and enter peace negotiations.
The alternative is to pursue a war which is morally indefensible and politically unnecessary and which, in the end, can have no winners.
