Pro-unity advocates have always faced a quandary in the border poll debate and that is: how you move the debate when the ultimate cards are held by the British government as to when a referendum is called.
The failure to negotiate criteria that give the pro-unity movement something to work towards still haunts those seeking constitutional change 25 years later.
How do we measure the road to success? Is it a pro-unity majority in a run of polls? Is it a pro-unity majority in the Assembly? All these questions we have no answers to.
Another dynamic that people are looking toward is the rise of Sinn Féin since 2020. The prospect of having a Sinn Féin-led government in Dublin has provoked more focus on the potential that a referendum could be on the horizon. However, this has limitations unless the British government are willing to sign off on a referendum.
The one big thing that Sinn Féin in government can pursue without any need to involve their British counterparts is a citizens' assembly on the various aspects of Irish unity. This is part of the reason why this mechanism is so attractive to pro-unification advocates. It is people-focused and can be moved forward without any need to involve anyone else.
A quick win for a Sinn Féin administration would be to begin setting this up early in their first term and then hope it evolves in the same way previous iterations of the citizens' assembly have in the past in the Irish Republic.
It should be noted that this initiative does not come without potential drawbacks. For instance, there is no guarantee that a citizens' assembly will provide much more substance for what a potential united Ireland might look like and could end up simply throwing up more confusion about the entire project.
On the positive side, it is a great way to keep the issue on the agenda and could, if done properly, give some much-needed definition to the concept of a New Ireland and allow a diverse range of voices to come forward and add to the debate. It also encourages the various parties across the island to think about their own approaches towards the constitution.
Whatever way the next election in the Irish Republic goes, it is important that we look more at how this issue can be progressed on the island of Ireland. The Secretary of State still holds the main cards in terms of calling a referendum, but moving forward with various mechanisms such as a citizens' assembly are important in keeping the momentum going.
Other parties who have the potential for form a government in the Irish Republic should be giving some serious consideration on how they plan to progress this conversation. Senior figures such as the current taoiseach have mentioned the trajectory that they believe this debate is on. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil should now be examining the various measures they can pursue in government on the Irish unity file.
The SDLP have the New Ireland Commission set up and examining this issue. More and more this will be something that other parties will be required to focus on.
The next Irish government of whatever colour needs to get ahead of this debate and start shaping it for the long term. As a former taoiseach once said, "We can’t opt out of the future”.
