After weeks of a seemingly interminable leadership contest, which has done little to inspire confidence and optimism, Liz Truss looks set to be confirmed today as the UK’s next prime minister.
The Conservative party is determined to cling onto to power at all costs but appear to be devoid of a single new policy idea or strategy that would address the current downward spiral. Unsurprisingly, Northern Ireland and the protocol barely registered in the hustings with more time spent discussing Truss’s cringeworthy Thatcher cosplays and her earrings.
Will the new prime minister really make any discernible difference to the beleaguered north? Will Liz Truss have the appetite to address the political stalemate here or will it be more stalling, empty platitudes and bluster?
Liz Truss is a born-again Brexiteer. She has embraced the Brexit cause with the absolutist zeal of a convert. Truss delighted both the hardline Brexiteers and the DUP with her NI Protocol Bill, designed to disapply huge swathes of the trade agreement. During the leadership campaign she repeatedly referred to “pushing through this bill”, as evidence of her track record for delivering progress. Bizarrely, even suggesting that the proposed legislation had “solved” the outstanding issues of the protocol, which could hardly be further from the truth. Rather than resolving the issues, it will fuel political instability, ensure economic uncertainty, and risk a damaging trade war with the EU.
Given the absence of any other plausible explanation for her complete change of heart around Brexit, it is blindingly obvious that she is an opportunist. Truss realised that she had no hope of becoming leader of the Conservative party without the support of the Brexit zealots. The protocol bill and her new-found interest in the north, is widely viewed as an attempt to burnish her Brexiteer credentials. The chair of the NI Affairs Committee, Tory MP Simon Hoare, described it a “muscle flex for a future leadership bid”. The proposed legislation is motivated by shameless self-interest and ambition rather than any desire to resolve the issues.
The DUP have not publicly supported either candidate, but Sir Jeffrey has implied that Liz Truss would be preferable, given her sponsorship of the NI Protocol Bill. She is the continuity Johnson candidate, same book, different cover. The alignment between the DUP and the Brexit Spartans in the Tory party, means that despite remaining tight-lipped these unionists will have been rooting for Truss. She is in hock to the ERG and the hard right of her party, therefore, we can expect more tough anti-EU rhetoric, delusions about taking back control, and a refusal to compromise. Truss has also signalled her willingness to “walk away” from the European Convention on Human Rights, which would represent a fundamental threat to the Good Friday Agreement.
Truss is no stranger to changing her position. However, her elevation to prime minister as a Trojan Horse for the ERG means she will be forced to continue pandering to Europhobic sentiment within the Tory ranks, at the expense of rational diplomacy. Her sneering attitude to the SNP, if repeated with Sinn Féin, is likely to bolster support for them.
The UK-EU relationship will be one of the most pressing issues facing the new occupant of Number Ten. How they deal with the protocol will define the future relationship. The proposed protocol bill is a political trip wire. If it becomes law, the repercussions from this unilateral action will dominate the international political agenda. An all-out trade war with the EU in the face of the worst cost of living crisis in a generation, would be catastrophic. Additionally, the perception of the DUP being appeased at the expense of the majority of the elected pro-protocol representatives in the assembly would further add to political instability. On the other hand, if the bill is withdrawn, how will the new PM forge an acceptable compromise? It is very hard to see a productive outcome from this strategy.
The House of Lords is unlikely to consider the proposed legislation until after the conference season in October. The scene is set for a lengthy, fractious, stand-off between the Lords and Commons. Unless the DUP softens its stance, a fresh NI Assembly election looks inevitable.
The protocol bill demonstrates that this government is unwilling and unable to accept the consequences of its actions. It is simply the latest stalling tactic to deflect from reality. Brexit was a delusion, untethered to facts and until this fantasy is acknowledged, it will be impossible to find a solution. Meanwhile the north is trapped in the cross-hairs of a wider Brexit battle, forced to limp on in limbo without a functioning government. Against a backdrop of the worst waiting lists in the UK, highest levels of poverty and deprivation, spiralling fuel bills and soaring inflation, things already look very bleak for an exasperated public.
In the post-Johnson era of this government, the only thing we can be certain of is continuing uncertainty.
