Polls close tomorrow in the devil or the deep blue sea election that is the Conservative Party leadership contest.
At this point in time, it appears that foreign secretary Liz Truss is the front-runner to take over the leadership of the party and with it, the office of prime minister.
Truss has achieved something during the leadership contest that few thought possible. She’s made Boris Johnson look like he wasn’t that bad after all.
In a leaked audio recording, Truss can be heard describing workers as lacking application and needing to work harder. She says that Europe and migration are distractions, but the real issue is workers need to put in “a bit more graft.”
What Truss fails to recognise here is that the biggest issue people are facing is that there is no reward for effort. Poor leadership means that people who put in the effort – or the graft that Truss talks about – are treated poorly.
Poor leadership at a macro and micro level mean that, whilst business profits soar, millions of people – including those who are employed – are facing into a winter of fuel poverty and spiralling costs. This is why so many, from rail workers to the Criminal Bar, are on strike.
Truss famously campaigned against Brexit, yet is now firmly in the camp of not just leaving the EU but trying to create as much disruption as possible whilst heading out the door.
As foreign secretary, she said she would support any British person who was going to Ukraine to fight against Russia, but has now said that she won’t. Against the advice of officials, she spent £3,000 of expenses taking a US trade delegation to an exclusive London club, yet on 48 occasions she has voted in favour of cuts to welfare benefits. Whilst justice secretary, Truss said Article 50 was “not a legal issue”. If an article of an international treaty incorporated into UK law isn’t a legal issue, then you have to wonder what is?
Truss’s lack of consistency and cop-on means that she will struggle to command trust or confidence in her leadership in an already divided Tory party. It’s a recipe for another Dominic Cummings-type figure to emerge.
With the deadline for Britain to respond to legal proceedings issued by the European Union fast approaching on September 16, speculation is mounting that Liz Truss, if she becomes prime minister, will trigger Article 16 of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement, rather than seek to negotiate with the EU or put in place any mitigations.
By mitigations, I mean, of course, the stuff that the British government should have been doing for the last three years but just couldn’t be bothered and thought they could get away without doing.
Once Westminster returns, the battle over the Protocol Bill that was introduced by Truss in June will commence. The belief is that the House of Lords will reject or amend the bill to the point where it is unrecognisable from the form in which it was introduced.
Ian Paisley said this week that there would be “no breathing room, no honeymoon period” for the new prime minister so it is to be expected that pressure from political unionism will ramp up post-recess.
Speaking to his constituency association, he said: “The longer the protocol is not dealt with, the longer Northern Ireland will be without fully functioning devolution. Northern Ireland ministers cannot be expected to manage departments which are implementing a protocol that is undermining Northern Ireland.”
Whilst the DUP is standing firm on its “no return to Stormont” schtick, Truss should not think that triggering Article 16 will be the cure for all her Brexit ills.
For the slow learners in the British Cabinet and in unionism, it’s worth reminding them that Article 16 does not allow for the suspension of the protocol permanently or in its entirety. Any measures taken under Article 16 can only be taken after a one-month negotiation period between the EU and British government, and only then if a solution has not been found. These measures are then subject to review every three months.
The Northern Ireland Business Brexit Working Group has called on the British government and EU to redouble their efforts to resolve their differences on the protocol and find solutions based on compromise. It said “We have been clear with the UK government that if it proceeds unilaterally with the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill…it will create a myriad of legal, commercial and reputational risks for many of our businesses.”
Members of the Business Brexit Working Group include the Ulster Farmer’s Union, CBI, Manufacturing NI, Hospitality Ulster and NI Retail Consortium, amongst other leading industry bodies.
If Truss really believes that issues with Europe are a distraction, perhaps she would be better off taking advice from these experts who know what the impact of a no-deal Brexit really are because they are beginning to experience it. Her alternative is to listen to politicians and campaigners peddling the fairy tale that trade arrangements and agricultural inspections dilute their British identity.
