There is a Chinese proverb which says, “ In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity’.
The current beleaguered leadership of the DUP is hoping this proves true. Because in truth, the tactic of withdrawing the first minister within twelve weeks of an election is an act of both desperation and distraction.
One commentator said the DUP was gambling on playing their last ace in the pack. Personally, I believe it’s an example of the type of political bankruptcy which has driven political unionism since the creation of Northern Ireland.
The late John Hume once said there were two flawed mentalities governing the Irish issue - that of physical force republicanism and the Afrikaner mentality within unionism. He said both had to change. “Unionism within Northern Ireland” said Hume, “has always been about holding power in their own hands, and discriminating, and their objective was to protect their identity”.
Since then things have changed.
Unionists no longer hold power in their “own hands”. In fact, they share power. Now they must cooperate, compromise and seek consensual outcomes. That said, political unionism is still obsessed with “protecting their identity”. But “their identity” is no longer synonymous with that of Northern Ireland. It is part of the identities within the north. The failure by a succession of unionist leaders to recognise this fundamental shift has been at the heart of their fruitless attempts to sell the benefits of the Union to a wider, more plural and diverse constituency.
It’s beyond a joke that the latest angst amongst unionism is one created entirely by their own folly when they enthusiastically embraced English nationalism and backed Brexit. In doing so, they set in train a chain of consequences - none of which were intended. Ridiculously they seriously believed they could play international poker for stakes well above their pay grade.
During the St Andrews negotiations, the DUP skilfully managed to hoodwink Sinn Féin into what could only be described as a ‘bastardisation’ of the Good Friday Agreement. It was a tactic which only worked as long as the DUP kept Sinn Féin onside and the latter could convince the wider nationalist community it was worthwhile.
It nearly was successful until everyone but Sinn Féin could see that the DUP were about as committed to an equality agenda as Trump was to truth. Then there was nothing to chuckle about. Sinn Féin finally pulled the plug when financial scandals, crocodile jibes and gratuitous insults towards the Irish language and LGBT rights could not be ignored.
The DUP doubled down on its support for Brexit and in doing so destroyed a committed unionist prime minister in Theresa May.
The NI Protocol is a direct consequence of unionist belligerence. But it is also a necessary one - especially when all mitigations are achieved by the EU and UK government.
Political unionism’s vanity knows no bounds. Even believing it has a right to veto international agreements. It even tried to thwart the sovereignty of Westminster, a sovereignty over which Brexiteers claimed as a spoil of war.
Political unionism and in particular the DUP (with a few notable exceptions) has let itself be led from the fringes of loyalism and the lunacy of an Orange institution which believes it’s 1912 not 2022.
If current polls are to believed, Sinn Féin will likely secure the post of first minister. (The smart DUP negotiators at St Andrews didn’t foresee that materialising so soon.)
But already the DUP leadership has linked the NI Protocol to the issue of whether they would enter an executive under such circumstances. Not even the brazen Boris Johnson would or could give them political cover if they embarked on such an anti-democratic move.
Elections are usually driven by forces of fear or hope. The DUP has chosen fear. It’s a well worn electoral tactic of unionism but it's wearing thin. So thin, it’s like the DUP emperor has no clothes.
