Brian Feeney: Jim Allister’s act of madness could ensure no unionist seats in Belfast

“Those whom the gods wish to destroy they first make mad.” There are several versions of that saying but they are all based on the observation that when people can’t distinguish fantasy from reality and act on the basis of fantasy, they’re on their way to oblivion.

After his party’s conference at the weekend, Jim Allister is on that path to self-immolation.

Announcing a formal link with Britain’s far-right Reform party is an ill-judged act of furious desperation. Would you want to be joined at the hip with the unspeakable Lee Anderson who “only wants his country back”? Well, maybe if you follow the drum beat of Jim Allister’s one-man band.

Maybe if you think the north is no longer part of the UK. No-one sensible seems to have spotted its departure. However, that’s not what Reform members mean when they talk about taking “their country back”. It’s anti-immigrant rhetoric that obsesses the party, not the Irish Sea border that TUV members talk about. Jim Allister must know that, but nevertheless is delighted to be associated with the poisonous language Reform spouts.

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It’s obvious that Allister is blinded by outrage that Jeffrey Donaldson has gone back on his pledges in 2021 and 2022 not to enter a Stormont executive until the Irish Sea border is dismantled. That return is compounded by Donaldson’s sudden abandonment of the DUP’s traditional stance of being the Millwall of politics: no one likes us, we don’t care.

Once again spooked by opinion poll findings, this time about Alliance party members, Donaldson has adopted an emollient tone; as he said, looking for converts to the DUP instead of heretics. It’s difficult to know which has enraged Allister more: the Irish Sea border u-turn or playing camogie with Michelle O’Neill.

Clearly Allister is infuriated that Donaldson has got away with his u-turn, despite having gained nothing from two years of boycotting. As you’ve read here before, the ‘Safeguarding the Union’ document is smoke and mirrors.

Allister is perfectly correct that Donaldson’s claim that border checks are gone is false. In the month until February 22 there were about 5,000 checks at Border Control Posts here.

What is most frustrating for poor Allister is that he can demonstrate in fine detail all the ways that Donaldson’s claims are not true but no-one cares. The latest poll shows 72% of unionists support a return to Stormont, including 67% of DUP voters. The DUP vote may have fallen, but the TUV only gained 2% of it, reaching a vertiginous 6%. Wow. That’s another reality Allister can’t accept. The Irish Sea border doesn’t affect the lives of unionist voters. The collapse of the NHS and no money for schools does.

So why link up with Reform? A couple of obvious reasons. First, Reform is now a national British party sitting at 12% in the polls so the TUV can claim to be attached to British politics, however tenuously.

Secondly, there’s campaigning money. Neither Richard Tice nor Reform is short of cash, unlike the TUV. Of course the main objective is to get at Donaldson and Gavin Robinson, Allister’s two culprits for the u-turn. Donaldson’s puppet Deputy First Minister, also implicated in the switcheroo, won’t be standing in the general election, leaving the other two the prime targets.

So far we don’t know how many constituencies TUV/Reform candidates will stand in, but be sure Lagan Valley and East Belfast are among them. In East Belfast the low profile, taciturn Robinson has a majority of only 1,819. With a TUV challenger he’s clearly vulnerable to Naomi Long. Yes, of course she’ll stand. Why wouldn’t she?

The big question is will Allister put his money where his mouth is and stand, say against Donaldson in Lagan Valley? Of course he knows the TUV has no chance of winning a seat. That’s not the objective. The objective is to damage the DUP ‘sea border implementers’ as badly as possible.

It’s difficult to know which has enraged Allister more: the Irish Sea border u-turn or playing camogie with Michelle O’Neill.

In unionist constituencies even a 4-5% TUV vote share could hand the seat to Alliance. Depending on the number of candidates fielded, the TUV will be arguing for a place on TV election panels, so watch out for court cases if BBC and UTV reject TUV attempts to gain equal air time with the DUP and UUP.

In the end, however, it’s an act of madness for Allister. His inability to discern political reality means he will never be forgiven for splitting the unionist vote.

His could be the astonishing achievement of ensuring no unionist seats in Belfast.