While Rishi Sunak will pick the timing of the Westminster general election on the basis of the most favourable conditions for the Tories, his decision will have significant implications here for the future of unionism.
An expected spring election would have given the DUP the chance to prolong its discussions with the British government on the Windsor Framework and then use the talks as an election rallying cry.
By portraying the Framework as a threat to the union, the DUP would have had a ready-made core message for their election manifesto. A November opinion poll indicated that they had 28 per cent support, their highest in over three years.
So if they had been able to drag out their negotiations until May, for example, they could have faced their electorate with some confidence. However, Sunak’s “working assumption” that the election will not now be held until the autumn has created a new challenge for the DUP.
It would be a high-risk strategy for the party to continue its Stormont boycott until the autumn. As well as growing public frustration at the lack of a working Assembly, proposed industrial action by a wide range of public sector employees would almost certainly damage the DUP’s electoral prospects.
It would be a high-risk strategy for the party to continue its Stormont boycott until the autumn. As well as growing public frustration at the lack of a working Assembly, proposed industrial action by a wide range of public sector employees would almost certainly damage the DUP’s electoral prospects
Trailing by 18 points in the polls, the Tories have no choice but to delay an election as long as possible.
Sunak hopes to use the time to fulfil his promise of turning the economy around. He also hopes that delaying the election will give him the opportunity to try deporting asylum seekers to Rwanda.
So not for the first time, Tory political interests conflict with the constitutional aspirations of unionism. Since the DUP is at loggerheads with the British government over the Windsor Framework, it can hardly expect any favours from Westminster.
Sunak may not be aware of Churchill’s 1922 reference to the “dreary steeples of Fermanagh and Tyrone”, but his announcement on the timing of the election suggests that he shares that same disinterest in events here.
Sir Jeffrey Donaldson says he has not yet decided when he will lead the DUP back into Stormont. Unintentionally, Sunak’s announcement on the timing of the election has made his mind up for him.
An autumn election indicates that the DUP cannot hope to continue the Windsor Framework talks until then. This means that now is the time for the party to return to Stormont.
