Political news

Poll tips Sinn Féin success in Fermanagh and South Tyrone seat

Sitting Fermanagh and South Tyrone MP, the UUP's Tom Elliott, could lose his seat in June's general election. Picture by Declan Roughan

SINN Féin will take the Fermanagh and South Tyrone seat from the Ulster Unionists, a polling company has predicted.

Lucid Talk has also suggested that the SDLP will retain all three of its Westminster MPs.

Using a computer-based model, the Northern Ireland-based company has forecast no change to 17 of the 18 seats when voters go to the polls on June 8.

The predictions are based on the results of the last three elections in the north and the company's last three opinion polls.

In Fermanagh and South Tyrone, it forecast that Sinn Féin are narrow favourites to take the seat from sitting Ulster Unionist MP Tom Elliott, citing the republican party's strong performance in the assembly elections.

Mr Elliott defeated Michelle Gildernew by less than 600 votes in 2015 when the DUP did not stand, after the Sinn Féin candidate had won the 2010 election by just four votes against independent Rodney Connor.

In East Belfast, the model found that the DUP have a 65 per cent probability of holding Gavin Robinson's seat, although this may be lower if Alliance leader Naomi Long, who lost the seat in 2015 amid a unionist pact, decides to stand.

Meanwhile, the SDLP's Alasdair McDonnell, the sitting MP in South Belfast, is said to have a 60 per cent probability of holding on.

However, Lucid Talk said he is vulnerable to a strong unionist candidate or a unionist pact in the constituency.

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Political news