Northern Ireland

Increase in Covid death rates 'inevitable' warns top scientist

Professor Ian Young said he was "very concerned" about the rise in Covid cases across the north 
Professor Ian Young said he was "very concerned" about the rise in Covid cases across the north 

Chief Scientific Adviser Professor Ian Young has expressed concern at the "rapid" rise in Covid-19 cases in the north, warning of an "inevitable" increase in death rates as a result.

"We're very concerned by the numbers of cases which are increasing rapidly, they've doubled in around the last eight days, as indeed have the number of patients in hospital," he told BBC Radio Ulster.

"And this is following the same pattern or trajectory that we saw earlier in the epidemic, albeit that the proportion of individuals who are getting more severe illness and going into hospitals is less. So, I think we're going to see a lot more cases before this situation improves and we're going to see significantly more pressures in our hospitals as a result of those cases. This is not over, there's still a lot of work to be done."

He added: "The pressures on our hospitals have been very significant all through the summer for multiple reasons and certainly adding significantly increased number of Covid admissions on top of that is going to bring considerable pressures to bear, and I know our hospitals are thinking carefully about how they can best manage and cope with that as we go through the next six to eight weeks."

Professor Young said: "Unfortunately I think that there will be some increase in deaths, which is inevitable as a result of a very large number of cases leading to quite a large number of hospital admissions for patients in critical care.

"But the number of deaths, the proportion of deaths from Covid, will be much less than in previous waves of the epidemic as a result of the impacts of vaccination and of improved treatments, which have gradually come into place during the last 18 months."

Professor Young said he was "very concerned" about stalling vaccination rates, with almost 20% of the adult population still to come forward for a first dose.

"I am very concerned about the uptake of vaccination, there's still around 18% of adults who have not come forward for the first dose of their vaccine," he said.

"And that means 18% of people who are just as susceptible to the most severe effects of Covid as they were earlier in the epidemic and at just the same risk of severe illness, long-term illness in the form of long Covid, hospital admission and death."

He urged those who have yet to come forward for their jab to "think really hard" about taking up the opportunity.

Professor Young said the Stormont Executive would be facing "difficult decisions" on Thursday when ministers meet to consider whether to approve the latest round of relaxations. He said ministers would need to find a "balance" between the health data on the pandemic and the economic and societal harm caused by restrictions.

On face masks, the chief scientific adviser said he would continue to support their use, particularly in indoor settings.

"There's a very strong case for continuing to recommend face coverings in indoor settings where people can't socially distance and settings which are not well ventilated," he said.