JUST after Christmas, around 15,000 P7 children will sit post-primary transfer tests.
Research suggests the fairness of this process is in doubt. Covid-19 has dominated 2020, but it has not affected everyone equally.
The link between educational attainment and socio-economic background is well established.
Evidence suggests that this was exacerbated by school closures and that this year's transfer tests will produce results that further disadvantage children from less well-off backgrounds.
Those same children also tend to have suffered more from other negative impacts of Covid-19, such as family illness, bereavement or pressure on home finances.
Pivotal is an independent think tank that aims to help increase the use of evidence in public policy.
Over the summer, the organisation produced a report that examined how children from more disadvantaged backgrounds are likely to have fallen further behind their peers during lockdown.
Covid-19 in Northern Ireland - a new economic vision, highlighted a variety of reasons for this, such as parents' ability to help, the different approaches taken by schools, children's home situation, and the availability of necessary technology such as computers and good internet connectivity.
Efforts have been made to compensate for the general learning gap and for inequalities within that gap - by way of extra funding allocated based on free school meals entitlements, and provision of laptops and portable connection devices.
Even now that schools have returned, some children and teachers continue to miss learning because of individual, family or class-bubble Covid-19 cases. Meanwhile, the risk of further lockdowns remains.
Is it fair to continue with tests when some children will have effectively missed far more learning than others? Is it fair when some will have been affected far more by the wider consequences of the pandemic?
These concerns are separate from the broader discussion about academic selection at age 11.
The truth is we do not know how well or how poorly academic selection serves the children of Northern Ireland.
Data on free school meals entitlement shows children from poorer backgrounds are far less likely to attend grammar schools but there is a lack of evidence-based analysis of the impacts of academic selection on children overall.
That itself is an issue, and one that should be addressed by Stormont's planned independent review of education.
Teachers and parents have worked hard to compensate for lost schooling, and help children with both learning and wellbeing issues.
Education Minister Peter Weir has stepped in with some extra funding for schools. At the same time, he has been almost unwavering in his commitment to continuing with this year's transfer tests. A two-week delay was announced in early September. This was lengthened to eight weeks after parents sought a judicial review.
The question of what happens if there are high rates of infection in January remains unanswered. A clear contingency plan covering different scenarios seems essential, but the minister has suggested he is doing all he can already.
Mr Weir has continually made two points: selective schools are legally entitled to choose pupils based on academic performance; and operational responsibility for the tests lies with the two private sector providers and not the Department of Education. This is true, but the minister has great sway in both situations.
However, he is not the only person with a say. Selective schools do not have to maintain the status quo and, so far, 12 have said they will not use transfer tests this year.
That creates another inequality - children aiming to get to those schools can concentrate on broader learning and wellbeing during P7, while many peers focus on exams.
Another observation from the minister is that all possible alternatives are worse options than the January exams. He is right that selecting by distance from the school, based on whether any siblings already attend, or by free school meal entitlement all have significant drawbacks.
However, it is impossible not to compare the situation of local P7 children with that of young people around the UK who are due to sit GCSEs and A-levels - or their Scottish equivalents - in 2020-21.
Those are more important exams, sat later in the year by older children. Yet, across the UK they are now subject to robust delays, reductions in work required, or even cancellation - replaced by teacher-assessed grading.
Using teacher assessments instead of transfer tests would be difficult, as there is no structure or track record on which to build. Difficult does not mean impossible.
Questions about fairness are unlikely to go away, especially if Covid-19 causes more disruption in the next two months.
All of us, not least children, teachers and parents, need reassurance that the transfer tests will be fair to all children, particularly those who has been most affected by this year's school closures.
:: Ann Watt is Director of Pivotal – the independent think tank for Northern Ireland.
