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Earnings feel good factor 'will not last'

Shoppers are enjoyed a feel good factor due to falling prices and increased wages
Shoppers are enjoyed a feel good factor due to falling prices and increased wages

A FEEL good factor around rising earnings and low inflation may be short lived, a leading economist has said.

Pay packets for full-time employees in Northern Ireland are growing at their fastest rate in more than a decade.

Workers took home 5.4 per cent more in the year to April 2015 - well ahead of the 1.8 per cent increase in the UK as a whole, according to the Northern Ireland Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings.

That puts the median gross weekly earnings for people in full-time employment in the north at £485.

It is the first time since 2009 that average earnings has increased and comes at a time when consumer prices are falling.

Wages growth was driven mainly by the private sector were pay rose 6.7 per cent to £429 a week while earnings in the public sector increased 1.6 per cent to £577 weekly.

Chief economist for Ulster Bank in the north Richard Ramsey said the increases were "greater than I would have expected".

"We are in something of a sweet spot at the moment in terms of increased earnings and historically low inflation," he said.

"However, in my view that is a short term thing and may only last around six months.

"There is definitely a feel good factor around consumer spending certainly in retail although that hasn't translated to things like car sales which are fairly flat."

However, Mr Ramsey cautioned changes to tax credits could "wipe out" any gains made for the north's economy in increased earnings.

"The survey only takes into account the earnings of people who are earning. The changes going forward in tax credits will have an impact.

"We don't know as yet what mitigating measures Stormont may take or whether George Osborne may row back on the severity of the tax credits cut."

The survey also revealed that women in full-time employment now earn 1.3 per cent more than their male counterparts.

However, men still earn more on average as more women work part-time hours.

Enterprise minister Jonathan Bell said the report was welcome news "particularly in these difficult economic times".

“It is most encouraging that the rate of growth in full-time private sector earnings in NI has exceeded that in the UK. However, earnings here remain lower than the UK and more needs to be done to promote and retain higher paid jobs in the private sector," he said.

“In these times of austerity it is particularly important that we see strong growth in the private sector as that will help compensate for the more stringent circumstances faced by the public sectors. Seeing positive private sectors jobs growth, now combined with strong growth in real private sector wages, is positive news for the economy as a whole."