NOT only did Donegal’s win over Derry on Saturday evening force an evening’s work out of the Richter Scale but it also altered the shape of the All-Ireland round-robin series – the draw for which is set to take place on Tuesday.
Derry’s National League title counts for very little now in terms of their championship status.
Mickey Harte’s side will be third seeds in the draw and are guaranteed to face one of the four provincial winners and one of the runners-up.
Whoever loses this weekend’s semi-final between Tyrone and Donegal will also be third seeds, thus be unable to face the Oak Leafers in the group stage.
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If Donegal were to win, they could still potentially meet Derry again in the group stage.
Only teams that have met in a provincial final will be prevented from being drawn together in the same group.
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Confirmed Sam Maguire Cup Teams for 2024 (as of 22/04/24)
— Gaelic Statsman (@gaelicstatsman) April 22, 2024
THREAD 🧵
Derry
Dublin
Kerry
Mayo
Tyrone
Galway
Donegal
Armagh
Roscommon
Monaghan
Cavan
Meath
Clare
Seed 1: Provincial Winners
Seed 2: Provincial Runners Up
Seed 3 and 4: Decided by League Ranking as per below pic.twitter.com/MfPV9fKAAv
The group stages will only take proper shape once all eight provincial finalists are known at the close of play this Sunday.
One of the chief rewards for winning your provincial title is avoiding the other winners, namely Kerry and Dublin, who are expected to once more retain the Munster and Leinster titles respectively.
The winners of Mayo and Galway will take another first seeding place alongside whoever emerges from the race for the Anglo Celt Cup.
A lot of the battle this weekend will be at the other end of the competition, with Down, Offaly and Kildare all trying to snatch a place in the All-Ireland series proper.
As it stands those three are due to spend the summer in the Tailteann Cup, but victory this weekend would propel them into the top 16 as provincial finalists.
Westmeath’s position is the most precarious. Having performed really well in the group of death last year – coming within inches of knocking Tyrone out when John Heslin’s last-gasp free stayed wide in the final game – they would lose their place if any of the other three were to win this weekend.
Despite beating them in a Division Three decider less than a month ago, Westmeath would lose their All-Ireland series place to Down if Conor Laverty’s side were to win in Clones on Saturday.
Dessie Dolan’s men would also drop out if Kildare beat Louth or Offaly beat Dublin.
Louth’s top-16 spot would be gone if they lost to Kildare and one or other of Down or Offaly made their provincial final.
Cork would drop out in the highly unlikely event that all three of Down, Offaly and Kildare managed to win this weekend.
The possibilities are still so wide open until after this weekend but as the most high-profile casualty of the provincial series so far, a lot of eyes will be on which group Derry end up in.
A best-case scenario for Mickey Harte’s side would most likely involve the Connacht champions, Clare (provided Kerry win Munster) and Meath.
The worst-case scenario for Mickey Harte’s side would be a group containing Dublin, the losers of Mayo-Galway and Cork.
Regardless of which provincial champions they’re drawn against, Derry’s first game in the group stage will be away to them.
The losers of Tyrone-Donegal will also be away to a provincial champion in their first game, as would Monaghan provided Armagh don’t lose to Down this weekend.
If Armagh were to lose on Saturday, they’d drop into the third seeding pot, pushing Monaghan down to fourth seeds.
On top of having the toughest provincial route to fight their way out of, whoever reaches the Ulster final will also get a week’s less rest than their counterparts from Connacht and Munster.
The opening round of group games will be staggered over two weekends, with the Connacht and Munster finalists in action on May 18/19. Having had the weekend previous (May 11/12) off, they’ll then have a rest week again on the weekend of May 25/26.
The Leinster and Ulster finals are on the weekend of May 11/12, with their first group stage game a fortnight later on May 25/26.
Everyone is then in action on the first weekend of June and again two weeks later on June 15/16.
The top team in each group goes straight into the All-Ireland quarter-finals, with the teams finishing second drawn against the third-placed finishers in preliminary quarter-finals.
The teams finishing bottom of each group are eliminated.
All-Ireland round-robin: Current state of play
First seeds: Provincial winners
Second seeds: Provincial runners-up
Third seeds: Derry, Tyrone/Donegal/Armagh, Roscommon, Monaghan*
Fourth seeds: Meath (guaranteed), Cavan*, Cork*, Westmeath*
Needing to reach provincial finals to get in: Down, Kildare, Offaly
How this weekend’s games could change things
- Down, Kildare and Offaly must win their provincial semi-finals this weekend to achieve a Sam Maguire place
- If Down win, Armagh would be third seeds for the round-robin draw and Monaghan will drop to fourth seeds
- The losers of Tyrone v Donegal will be third seeds
- Meath’s place is safe as Tailteann Cup winners from last year
- Westmeath would miss out if any of Down, Kildare or Offaly reach a provincial final
- Louth would miss out if TWO of Down, Kildare and Offaly reached provincial finals
- Cork would miss out if ALL THREE of Down, Kildare and Offaly reached provincial finals
- Teams that meet in the provincial finals will be kept apart in the group stage
- All other repeat fixtures are allowed ie Derry v Donegal, Cavan v Monaghan, Kerry v Cork