MANY column inches and countless threads on Twitter have been dedicated to the PGA Tour’s promotion of ‘designated events’ of late, with the fear amongst many being that the top tier of professional golf is moving towards a closed shop set up for the very biggest names.
That theory was backed up by the fact the first three such events of this campaign were won by Jon Rahm (twice) and Scottie Scheffler, the top two players in the world rankings at present.
However, Kurt Kitayama’s victory in the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill on Sunday night struck a blow for the underdog and may quietly have been welcomed by those behind the scenes on the tour.
The unheralded American has come through the ranks the tough way, bouncing around various tours before proving hard work pays off by getting the better of a packed leaderboard that included Rory McIlroy, Scheffler and Jordan Spieth to claim his maiden PGA Tour success.
It will surely have convinced some sceptics that patience can still be a virtue, while it may just have persuaded some middle-tier performers to resist the lure of LIV Golf money for another while to see how the changes on tour pan out.
Those that have already gone to LIV are publicly very happy with their lot, but there must be a few pangs of envy when they see events being played out in front of big galleries at iconic venues on the circuit they left behind.
Venues don’t come much more iconic than Sawgrass, and outside of the Majors, events are scarcely more prestigious than The Players Championship, which takes centre stage in Florida from tomorrow afternoon.
So long billed ‘the fifth Major’, The Players has often hosted the strongest field of the season, and while that may no longer be quite the case due to LIV defections, this is a title they all want to win.
In the last few years massive names have captured this event, with McIlroy and Justin Thomas followed into the winner’s circle by Cameron Smith last term.
The fact the Australian has now gone over to the ‘other side’ means we are guaranteed there will be no change to the trend that nobody has ever successfully defended at Sawgrass.
Indeed, this clever Pete Dye-designed course – famous for the par-three 17th to an island green but about so much more – has never truly been figured out by anyone, with all of the elite having patchy records here.
At the likes of Augusta and Riviera, the same names tend to creep up the leaderboard, but not at Sawgrass, with only Tiger Woods winning here twice this century, with even those successes coming 12 years apart in 2001 and 2013.
Of the current ‘big three’ of McIlroy, Rahm and Scheffler, it is the Holywood man who has the best record, winning in 2019 and putting three top-10s together between 2013 and 2015.
He is the nominal 8/1 favourite ahead of Rahm this week, yet he has done very little at Sawgrass since his victory, and the fact he was in the heat of battle at Bay Hill on Sunday night before sharing second might just count against him.
Scheffler was also right on the premises without getting over the line, and Sawgrass is a puzzle he is yet to solve, while Rahm backtracked at Bay Hill after taking the first round lead and has only one top-10 here in five tries.
I think this could be a week to leave all of the trio alone, and we should remember there are plenty of other elite runners in the field.
The first of those – and my main selection – is Patrick Cantlay, who should be backed at 14/1 with Ladbrokes, who along with Paddy Power are paying 10 places.
On the face of it, the Californian’s record at Sawgrass is poor, with a best of 22nd from five completed outings nothing to get excited about.
However, he opened with a
five-under 67 before Covid forced the 2020 renewal to be abandoned, and he has never come into The Players in March with a Florida warm-up before.
This time around he may well have had the perfect preparation, finishing fourth at Bay Hill on Sunday without ever really being in the hunt, with his closing 68 completed well before the mayhem that ensued in the closing stages.
Cantlay was superb from tee-to-green last week, and while Smith putted his way to Sawgrass success 12 months ago, it is essentially a shot-maker’s course, with the emphasis on finding the fairways – especially with rough grown up this term – and attacking flags with your short irons.
There a few better than Cantlay with wedge in hand, and he could maintain his fine form, which saw him finish third in the Genesis before his fourth on Sunday, so Players success could well await come Sunday night.
Elsewhere, 2021 winner Justin Thomas has to come into deliberations due to his iron play, although there are just about enough reasons to put me off at 16/1.
Rather, I’ll take my chances on a trio of big names at more than double those odds.
Keegan Bradley was the first name onto my shortlist this week, and the 40/1 offered by Paddy Power is more than fair enough about a man who is back into the world’s top 20 on the back of some exceptional long game performances.
Bradley won the ZOZO Championship in Japan last October and has continued to rattle in the big finishes, with a second at the Farmers Insurance Open last month backed up a by a fast-finishing 10th at Bay Hill on Sunday.
Like Cantlay, he was just too far off the pace to really contend, but it could prove great preparation for this week, and the Boston
man will surely be relishing a return to a venue where he was fifth last term, seventh in 2018 and 16th in 2019.
That is about as consistent as it gets around Sawgrass, and Bradley is in far better form than on any of those occasions so he has to be strongly considered.
Meanwhile, I can’t get away from the feeling that Sawgrass is perfect for Shane Lowry, a player who only wins massive events.
The Clara man loves old-school tests that demand imagination and creativity, and with an eighth and 13th to his name here in the last two renewals, there are reasons to think he could get in the shake-up again.
A lowly 67th at Bay Hill is hardly a cause for optimism, but that was his first cut made in five attempts at a course he just doesn’t like, and I’d prefer to focus on his previous effort at the Honda Classic when Lowry was fifth, leading the field from tee-to-green on what was an emotional week following the death of his uncle.
With a new caddie now bedded in, Lowry is approaching the levels of last season and I’m confident of a big performance.
Finally, 2015 champion Rickie Fowler may just go well at 50/1 as he seeks to knit all the good signs of recent outings together.
Also the runner-up here in 2012, few know Sawgrass better, and Fowler is creeping back towards his best after returning to swing coach Butch Harmon, although he has struggled to put four good rounds together since his second to Bradley at the ZOZO Championship in October.
Despite that, Fowler has three top-20s in his last four outings and started strongly at Bay Hill before fading over the weekend.
A return to a favoured venue could just serve him well, and he may also be one to consider in the first round leader markets at 50/1 with Sky Bet.
It promises to be another big week in a tumultuous time for the game, and hopefully we end up with a worthy winner come Sunday.
SELECTION
Patrick Cantlay, e/w, 14/1 (Ladbrokes);
Keegan Bradley, e/w, 40/1 (Paddy Power);
Shane Lowry, e/w, 40/1 (Paddy Power); top European, e/w, 14/1 (Boylesports);
Rickie Fowler, e/w, 50/1 (William Hill); first round leader, e/w, 50/1 (Sky Bet)
