There's nothing political commentators love more than a huge shift in the dynamics: and that's precisely what happened in the House of Commons on Tuesday.
The DUP is in a no-win position. Don't agree to reboot the Assembly by October 21 and the Commons will introduce secondary legislation to extend same-sex marriage to Northern Ireland, as well as ensuring that the existing law on abortion is changed to comply with human rights obligations. Yet agree to reboot before October 21 and it will have to be accompanied by a cast iron pledge not to deploy a petition of concern to prevent changes to same-sex marriage and abortion law.
The DUP says that it does not have the numbers to use the petition of concern. That is true: it does not, by itself, have the required 30. But it does have Jim Allister (who claims to prefer direct rule anyway, but not, it seems, to the extent of the sovereign parliament doing something he doesn't like). I think it's almost certain, too, that it could rely on at least one UUP MLA to sign a petition: and that would bring it up to 30. So, in the absence of that cast iron pledge not to deploy the petition, it is very unlikely that Sinn Féin would reboot. Why would they, when they now know that the necessary legislation will be introduced from Westminster?
Some people suggest that the DUP will be 'quietly pleased' by this decision, because it gets them off the hook of having to take a decision on two issues which rattle key sections of its grassroots. Yet that strikes me as an invidious stance: 'We don't want to be seen to do it ourselves, so we'll leave it to others while we huff and puff in the background.' Of course, once you establish the precedent of allowing Westminster to carry particularly heavy cans for you, it makes it a great deal easier to let it deal with an Irish Language Act, too.
Is that really the plan? Get same-sex marriage, abortion and an Irish Language Act out of the way (all the while claiming that you never buckled to Sinn Féin just for the sake of executive office) and then cut a deal with them afterwards? Hmm. I wouldn't say that the idea hasn't crossed some DUP minds, but I would say that it is a strategy which would make them look terribly weak in the eyes of both Sinn Féin and Westminster.
Mind you, I think the DUP is looking pretty weak at the moment anyway. All the leverage that was supposed to accompany the confidence and supply deal with the Conservatives (and which will be up for renegotiation when the new prime minister takes over) is looking limp right now. Brexit hasn't turned out for them as expected: and they've already been shafted by Theresa May's original withdrawal agreement and backstop, followed by Boris Johnson reneging on the promise he gave at the DUP's conference last November not to support that backstop. Add to that the fact that the lack of an overall unionist majority in the Assembly (which hasn't sat since the loss of that majority in 2017) will force both the DUP and UUP into a rethink. And now this, what is to all intents and purposes, fait accompli on same-sex marriage and abortion reform.
But there is good news for unionism generally and the DUP particularly. The more Northern Ireland is in line with the rest of the United Kingdom on these big-ticket issues the easier it is to promote the value of the Union. The sense of being a 'place apart' has been hugely damaging for unionism in Northern Ireland. How can you even claim to be a pro-UK unionist here while supporting arrangements in which local people are denied the same rights taken for granted by our fellow citizens in England, Scotland, Wales (and even the rest of Ireland)?
The DUP should welcome the proposed changes. Indeed, if it had any sense it would return to the Assembly and promote the general principle of equality of citizenship in Northern Ireland. That, after all, should be the bedrock of UK unionism. Happy Twelfth!
