Opinion

Border poll will be decided by the unaligned

As the debate over the circumstances in which an Irish border referendum can take place intensifies, most attention to date has focussed on the position of northern nationalists, unionists and the unaligned.

However, ordinary citizens in Britain have seldom been given the opportunity to discuss the issue and it is essential that their views are fully taken into consideration.

A YouGov opinion poll last week produced some intriguing results on the future of the UK which, while stressing that surveys only represent a snapshot of attitudes at a specific time, should make some of the more strident voices within unionism pause for thought.

The poll indicated that 46 per cent of people in Britain would be upset if Wales left the UK, with the figure for Scotland only marginally smaller at 43 per cent.

When it comes to what are officially referred to as the British overseas territories, the level of disappointment at the potential loss of the Falkland Islands and Gibraltar was much lower at 35 and 33 per cent respectively.

Northern Ireland was at the bottom of the popularity list among those questioned, with just 32 per cent saying they would regret its departure, 43 per cent not bothered either way, 15 per cent pleased at the prospect and nine per cent in the don't know category.

If it is indeed the case that less than one voter in three in Britain supports retaining Northern Ireland's place in the union, the implications are far reaching.

Unionists are faced with the prospect of basing their entire philosophy on cherishing a link with Britain which to put it mildly is increasingly not reciprocated.

In sharp contrast, every recent survey in the south of Ireland, including the major exercise published by The Irish Times and the Analysing and Researching Ireland North and South (ARINS) project last December, shows a majority of more than four to one in favour of unity.

The border referendum which is plainly coming into view will eventually pit the equally legitimate aspirations of northern nationalists against unionists but its outcome is likely to be ultimately decided by those who do not identity with either of the main traditions.

The crucial latter group will have to decide whether its destiny lies with a disinterested and fiscally challenged post Brexit Britain or as part of a welcoming and vibrant all Ireland economy which offers all the massive benefits attached to the European Union.