IT’S hard to predict what is going to happen in politics at home and abroad, but there are a number of developments that seem pretty inevitable.
Provided current opinion polls hold up, Sinn Féin can expect to have considerably more seats than any other party in the Republic of Ireland after the next general election, which looks at the moment as if it will be called in mid-to-late 2024.
I secured a press pass for the party’s ard fheis in Dublin last Saturday. The conference took place at the Royal Dublin Society in the southside suburb of Ballsbridge. My inner historian drew attention to a coincidental irony. During the 1916 Rising, about 2,000 British soldiers from the Sherwood Foresters regiment were marching towards downtown Dublin to crush the revolt that was led by Pearse and Connolly. They stopped off at the RDS, where they were served with lemonade to ease their thirst under what was a strong Easter sun.
The troops, who were mainly from an industrial or farming background, then proceeded towards the city centre but they got ambushed on the way at Mount Street Bridge by Irish Volunteers. Casualty figures vary but it appears that at least 26 British soldiers were killed and 134 wounded, compared to four fatalities on the Irish side. On a more positive note, one of the leaders of the Rising and future taoiseach, Eamon de Valera, was arrested and initially detained in Ballsbridge which, along with the fact that he was born in New York, probably helped to save him from execution.
Given its space, layout and location, the RDS is a good place to hold a party conference and Fianna Fáil staged its own ard fheis there at the end of September. The Sinn Féin gathering included former party president Gerry Adams, among other long time members. The focus, however, was on younger delegates and you couldn’t help thinking of the line from John F. Kennedy’s famous inauguration speech: “Let the word go forth from this time and place to friend and foe alike that the torch has been passed to a new generation”.
The number of people in their 20s, 30s and (early) 40s hanging on every word from the platform was quite remarkable.
They are clearly banking on the achievement of a united Ireland by peaceful political means, an advance on the old republican tradition of placing greater faith on the Armalite or its equivalent than on the ballot-box.
Advance information suggested Mary Lou McDonald’s conference speech didn’t contain much dramatic content, but she delivered it well, bringing the delegates to their feet as they applauded. The struggle to achieve political power is not going to be easy. Even if Sinn Féin does turn out to be the largest party after the next general election, a combination similar to the existing three-party coalition of Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Greens could still end up with a majority in Dáil Éireann.
Indeed the latest poll to hand at time of writing, compiled by Ireland Thinks and published in the Sunday Independent, shows a slight drop in Sinn Féin support from 37 down to 34 per cent. Interestingly, however, there is no growth in support for the current ruling parties: Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil remain on 21 and 17 per cent respectively whilst the Greens are down one point to three per cent. Between the three of them, however, they are seven points ahead of Mary Lou and her friends.
After the next election Sinn Féin could try to cut a deal with smaller parties such as Labour and the Social Democrats plus a number of Independents in order to achieve a majority. Another option might be a coalition with Fianna Fáil, which would be hard to swallow for significant elements on both sides but, based on present figures, would add up to a total of 51 per cent.
A big issue for Sinn Féin, highlighted in its leader’s conference speech, is the establishment of a Citizens’ Assembly on Irish unity. Calling on the current coalition to set one up “immediately”, she continued: “If this government refuses to hear tomorrow coming, if it does not establish a Citizens’ Assembly, Sinn Féin in government will.”
Citizens’ Assemblies consist of an independent chairperson appointed by the government and 99 members chosen at random from the electoral register. Previous issues include abortion and gender equality. A report is prepared and the government of the day is obliged to respond to it.
Don’t say you weren’t given advance notice.
Email: Ddebre1@aol.com; Twitter: @DdeBreadun
