HISTORICALLY South Belfast was a staunchly unionist seat. It wasn't that long ago that former SDLP leader Alasdair McDonnell claimed he had "borrowed" the seat and that his victories in Westminster elections were due to a split unionist vote.
But South Belfast is also Northern Ireland's most demographically dynamic constituency. Pockets of loyalism remain but elsewhere over recent decades the leafy avenues that were once home to affluent Protestant businesspeople and professionals have become increasingly populated by Catholics, people from overseas, and those who'd rather not be identified by either of the north's traditional community labels. Its Stormont representation – a single MLA each from Sinn Féin, the DUP, Alliance, the Greens and SDLP – is characteristically diverse.
South Belfast also voted by more than 2-to-1 to remain in the EU – a convincing result, reflecting a largely outward-looking, cosmopolitan and tolerant population. Yet in 2017, South Belfast elected Emma Little-Pengelly as its MP. The former special adviser to Peter Robinson isn't especially eurosceptic or deliberately antagonistic towards nationalists and non-unionists, but her party's support for Brexit makes her deeply unpopular among the vast majority of constituents.
Ahead of the last election there had been talk of co-operation among the South Belfast's pro-Remain parties but it was SDLP incumbent Alasdair McDonnell, an anti-abortion conservative, who became the impediment to any alliance involving liberal and left-leaning parties.
But this time around, the retired GP has left the stage and in his place the SDLP has selected Claire Hanna a much more modern candidate, with a strong profile and greater appeal outside the party's traditional support base. She represents the best opportunity to regain the seat for her party and for the constituency to return an MP that echoes its pro-EU viewpoint.
Sinn Féin's not entirely unexpected decision to withdraw from the race was made much easier by the SDLP standing aside in North Belfast.
The Greens' Claire Bailey is widely expected to withdraw from the contest also, potentially making an announcement as early as today. Alliance, however, is unlikely to withdraw – a combination of its own (exaggerated?) self-belief and a dogged insistence that it doesn't do pacts. While an Alliance withdrawal isn't necessarily required for Claire Hanna to top the poll, it would've provided useful cover against accusations of reducing the South Belfast election to a 'sectarian headcount'.
On the other side, it'll be curious to see whether the Ulster Unionists field a candidate, given that the 'unionist family' stands to lose out, albeit to a moderate nationalist rather than a republican.
