LET’S cut to the chase. What Johnson calls his new ‘Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland’ will go nowhere.
The EU will not immediately dismiss it in case that hands more ammunition to justify another outburst of hostility from the Brexiteers and aids Johnson in his battle with Parliament.
However, many senior figures in the EU believe Johnson must know there are so many unacceptable aspects to the proposal that he must intend it to fail.
First, the EU will never accept separating the customs union from the single market.
It’s true that a surprising number of people in the British government still don’t know the difference. Indeed, neither do the DUP, as you’d expect.
Their first statement yesterday said the proposals ensured the north would be out of the customs union and the single market like the rest of the UK: nope.
In fact the proposal is for one regulatory market for goods on this island.
Yet, at the same time, there would be two customs regimes on the island which means a customs border with checks, unacceptable to the EU and Dublin.
Furthermore, the British proposal requires ways of managing customs which the EU uses nowhere else on any other border. The proposal also offers wonderful opportunities for smuggling. It’s not going to happen.
Leaving aside the technicalities of customs and the attempt to interfere with the mechanisms of the single market, the most obvious reason the proposals will fail is because of what the leader of the SNP in Westminster, Ian Blackford, called a ‘fig leaf for the DUP’.
The idea that Stormont would control whether the north stayed in alignment with the single market in all or any way was instantly denounced by Sinn Féin.
Michelle O’Neill said: "The bottom line is that there will never be a circumstance where the DUP will be afforded a veto over Brexit and over the future relationship on this island."
The assembly and executive are in dire straits at present, but such an arrangement, resurrecting the unionist veto discarded formally in 1998, would guarantee the death of power-sharing here. Johnson must know it’s a non-runner.
Apart from the little local difficulty of handing unionists a veto, the EU would never accept a regional assembly having the final say on which parts of the single market it would operate.
What would Brussels say if Catalonia decided to copy the north and alter arrangements to suit local circumstance? Or a part of Belgium?
The cynicism of this Johnson proposal is evident for all to see. Clearly, the British expect it to fail, in which case Johnson will not go to the European Council on October 17.
Apparently plans are already laid for Johnson to refuse to ask for an extension by October 19. He expects to be in the High Court on October 21 and the Supreme Court later that week, then go for an election in November.
This proposal is a pretence at negotiation which is intended to fail to advance Johnson’s specious people versus Parliament crusade.
