Business

Economic recovery 'isn't benefitting all' as activity falls again

There were respectable rates of growth in manufacturing in the north in April
There were respectable rates of growth in manufacturing in the north in April There were respectable rates of growth in manufacturing in the north in April

The economic recovery is only impacting on small parts of the north's private sector, a newly published business barometer claims.

And companies remain vulnerable to weakness in the euro area and instability in global markets, Ulster Bank says in its latest PMI report covering April.

But despite a dip in activity, with output and new orders generally declining, it's not all downbeat, with many firms taking on extra staff and sectors like manufacturing and service enjoying a purple patch.

The report comes in the wake of a General Election which saw the Tories win an outright majority, and how that impacts on business sentiment and rebalancing the economy in Northern Ireland in the coming months and years remains to be seen.

Ulster Bank says private sector activity declined in April for the fourth time in five months.

The bank's regional chief economist Richard Ramsey said: "Although modest, it underlines that Northern Ireland’s private sector recovery has effectively stalled since last November, and while we're seeing a slight decline, there is positive growth in all other UK regions."

Future order books aren't being filled either, suggesting that a meaningful pick-up in demand is not yet on the horizon, with all sectors bar manufacturing reporting a decline in levels of new orders.

"Survey respondents cited uncertainty in the local economy as a factor that is delaying the approval of projects," Mr Ramsey said.

"New export business also declined at an accelerating rate in April. Firms here last reported an expansion in their export order books in October, and the strength of sterling against the euro is a factor hampering export performance."

But on the flip side he added: “Despite the uncertainty and lack of demand, local firms saw their staffing levels rise at the fastest rate in seven months. Employment growth was reported across all sectors with the exception of construction, where headcount was broadly flat in April."

The report said that while Northern Ireland’s headline performance in terms of output and orders was disappointing, it concealed vastly differing performances at a sectoral level.

"The fall in business activity was due to steep declines in construction and retail, which more than offset the respectable rates of growth in manufacturing and services," Mr Ramsey said.

"Last month, local retailers reported their sharpest decline in retail sales since May 2012. Meanwhile the construction sector posted its largest fall in business activity in two years.

“Yet despite further signs of a global manufacturing slowdown in April, the local manufacturing sector was the top performer. While global manufacturing output growth slipped to a 21-month low, manufacturing firms saw output growth rebound to a six-month high, after a recent soft patch.

"New orders also accelerated significantly to a six-month high, driven by demand in the GB market."

Mr Ramsey cautioned that while the sterling/euro exchange rate has eased recently, it will continue to act as a major headwind for exporters and cross-border retailers.