All-Ireland SFC Qualifying round 3B: Tipperary v Armagh (today, Semple Stadium, Thurles, 5pm)
WHEN two counties haven't previously met in Championship a recent League meeting should be a helpful guide – but no one knows what to expect with either Tipperary or Armagh.
These are teams who lose when they should win and vice versa, as was the case in their Division Three promotion decider at The Athletic Grounds in early April.
Michael Quinlivan devastated Armagh with a second half hat-trick of goals, including the last-gasp winner that snatched the second promotion place from Division Three out of the hosts' hands.
Tipp then lost out to a similarly-timed goal from Cork in their Munster semi-final, having spurned plenty of chances, while Armagh were also woefully wasteful in their Ulster exit against Down.
However, having seemed a team what would always find a way to lose a tight match, the Orchardmen then won down in Westmeath last weekend despite playing poorly and with only 14 men for the final third.
Yet as if Armagh didn't have enough reasons to be fearful of Tipperary, the Premier County footballers had added to their 'never say die' reputation last Saturday.
Six points behind at half-time away to Cavan, Liam Kearns's side looked down and out – but they turned the tie on its head, taking a six-point lead themselves before holding on for a three-point win.
And all that with Allstar full-forward Quinlivan only playing the final third of the match, and scoring a solitary point.
The Clonmel Commercials clubman was rushed back into action earlier than expected after the ankle injury that forced him off early in their Munster loss to Cork on June 10.
He's been held in reserve again, at least he's not in the announced team, but Tipp will hope to get at least a half out of him.
Young Jack Kennedy has been shifted to the forefront of a re-shaped attack, with Philip Austin earning a start after his superb second half showing as a sub in Cavan. Willie Connors of Kiladangan has also been called in at corner-back for his Championship debut.
Austin is one of the powerful runners in the Tipperary team, along with centre half-back, but they mix up their attacking approach, also able to kick ball long to Quinlivan, Conor Sweeney, and Kennedy, who has the flexibility to operate out around midfield.
Armagh have recalled experienced defender Mark Shields to replace Aaron McKay, the same alteration enforced by injury in the second half in Mullingar, the only personnel change from the side that started last Saturday.
Armagh captain Rory Grugan feels the manner of their win in Mullingar was a boost, saying: "It was nice to come out of one of those close games as winners.
"We've played better than that and lost games before. As far as we're concerned to grind out a result like that is nice, in a way. You've room for improvement.
"That day against Tipperary in the League we got a sucker punch and didn't win the game. We're always mindful that it's a results-based business. It's nice to put two wins together."
The Ballymacnab man also believes that victory resulted from good spirit in the camp: "We've carried a bigger squad than we've ever done but, ironically enough, we're closer as a group, there's a good bond.
"A lot of young boys came in and kept the rest of us on our toes, that has pushed boys on.
It wasn't translating into results early on in the League, and we were very, very disappointed with how Down went. We had to re-set and say we wanted to put that right; we're two steps down the road to doing that."
The first of those was the round 1B victory over Fermanagh, when Armagh were fairly impressive nine-point winners – albeit on home ground.
Travelling is tougher, generally, although Tipperary haven't necessarily found it so.
Still, Kearns was hoping for a home draw after the Cavan game, and his wish was granted, but how much 'home advantage' Tipp will accrue in Thurles is debatable given the size of the Armagh support.
They outnumbered Westmeath by an estimated four to one and could at least do that in Semple Stadium. Tipperary football chairman Joe Hannigan, father of midfielder George, has issued a public appeal for more followers in the self-styled `home of hurling'.
Admittedly the nature of last weekend's game might not inspire some Orchard County fans to head south again, particularly not on an even longer journey.
The players at least will be hoping for more favourable conditions, with Grugan noting the effect the "sapping" heat in Cusack Park had in slowing the game down late on.
"When the legs are tired going up and down the pitch, you don't want to force a shot, you try to work it into a scoring position and try to get the right men on the ball."
Armagh did demonstrate admirable composure to eke out that victory, but arguably they need to provide closer support to their talented inside-forwards. Jamie Clarke, in particular, should be fresh and motivated after being black-carded in the opening minute against Westmeath.
They also need to protect their defence better; Tipp skipper Brian Fox plays as sweeper, and has back-up to boot.
The visitors do at least have good options on the bench, including Stefan Campbell, Ethan Rafferty, Oisin O'Neill, and the versatile and experienced Ciaran McKeever.
Tipperary have had to make do and mend, missing men for a variety of reasons - including goalkeeper Evan Comerford (banned after an incident at a club game), Peter Acheson (now living in Dubai), Steven O'Brien (opted for hurling), and Colin O'Riordan (away to Aussie Rules), while there's also been a lengthy injury list affecting others.
The losses from last year's team, and the lack of full fitness for Quinlivan and Austin, have at least lessened expectations surrounding Tipperary after their progress to the Munster Final and All-Ireland semi-final last season.
Armagh's followers, though, will have that strange mix of demanding progress while simultaneously fearing failure.
If Armagh can loosen up and play with more freedom they have the depth of talent to win; but that probably means we should anticipate Tipperary going on to meet a losing finalist from Ulster or Leinster...
Tipperary: C Kenrick; W Connors, A Campbell, E Moloney; B Maher, R Kiely, J Feehan; L Casey, G Hannigan; J Keane, K O'Halloran, B Fox (capt.); C Sweeney, J Kennedy, P Austin.
Armagh: B Hughes; J Morgan, C Vernon, M Shields; P Hughes, B Donaghy, A Forker; S Sheridan, N Grimley; C O'Hanlon, A Duffy, R Grugan (capt.); J Clarke, A Murnin, G McParland.
Referee: Paddy Neilan (Roscommon).
