TEAM TALK
DUBLIN (Probable): S Cluxton; P McMahon, J Cooper, D Byrne; J McCarthy, C O’Sullivan, J Small; B Fenton, MD Macauley; P Flynn, K McManamon, C Kilkenny; D Rock, D Connolly, B Brogan
JIM Gavin is unlikely to tinker with a winning formula, despite some genuine concerns emerging from the semi-final win over Kerry. Stephen Cluxton may have had a nightmare but he is as close to untouchable as it gets, while Michael Darragh Macauley struggled against the Kingdom but can be expected to hold onto his place. Outside of the starting 15, Dublin’s bench is stacked with talent, as the likes of Paul Mannion, Eoghan O’Gara, Denis Bastick and Michael Fitzsimons push for game-time.
MAYO: D Clarke; B Harrison, D Vaughan, K Higgins; L Keegan, C Boyle, P Durcan; S O’Shea, T Parsons; K McLoughlin, A O’Shea, D O’Connor; C O’Connor, A Moran, J Doherty
STEPHEN Rochford has made one change from the team that beat Tipperary in the semi-final. Barry Moran was brought in for the Tipp game to play almost as an extra full-back and help counter-act with the Premier’s direct tactics. The Castlebar man delivered the goods. However, the Dubs pose a much different threat and Moran drops out for the more mobile Tom Parsons, who is named at midfield alongside Seamus O’Shea, with Donal Vaughan selected at full-back.
Dublin Tactical Take
EVEN though they ended up two-point winners over Kerry, the Kingdom posed more questions than have been asked of the Dubs so far this year. For a five-minute spell before half-time, the normally ice cool Stephen Cluxton appeared spooked as the Dubs coughed up 2-2.
Kerry’s first goal came after an uncharacteristically sloppy kick-out, the second when the goalkeeper and full-back line failed to deal with a high ball. Despite those moments of panic, Dublin regrouped at half-time and came out firing.
Gavin often speaks about sticking to the process and remaining calm – their game-plan is well defined at this stage, and they have the shooters in the forward division to inflict maximum damage. It’s at the back where question marks linger, especially if Mayo go after Cluxton’s kick-outs with the same hunger as Kerry.
How Dublin handle Aidan O’Shea could also be key, with the Breaffy man expected to drift in and out as Kieran Donaghy did to such effect. Philly McMahon is likely to be handed that detail.
Mayo Tactical Take
HOW much will Mayo boss Stephen Rochford have gleaned from Kerry’s performance against Dublin? Have the Kingdom provided the template from which the Westerners can go forth and finish the job? It would be crude to think Jim Gavin won’t have learned lessons from his team’s shortcomings that day as well.
Mobility will be a crucial factor tomorrow, hence Tom Parsons’s selection instead of Barry Moran. All 15 men will have to be on point for the full 70 minutes.
In both games against Dublin last year, Mayo lumped the ball towards Aidan O’Shea on the edge of the square time and again, with mixed results.
Kieran Donaghy’s movement for Kerry flummoxed Dublin at times, and O’Shea and Cillian O’Connor could both roam in and out in a bid to unsettle the Dubs’ fragile fullback line.
At the other end of the field, Rochford is blessed with some sticky manmarkers in the likes of Lee Keegan, Colm Boyle and Donal Vaughan, men who are also capable of breaking the lines and posing an offensive threat.
Man of the Moment
Kevin McManamon
TRAILING behind three team-mates in the running for the Footballer of the Year award by the bookies’ reckoning, don’t be surprised if McManamon propels himself to the top of that list by the close of play tomorrow afternoon. A big game player, the St Jude’s man has shaken off the super-sub reputation garnered after years of explosive performances from the bench to become a central figure in the Dubs’ charge for back-to-back titles. McManamon’s pace and power – allied to his formidable work ethic – saw him inspire against the Kingdom, and Jim Gavin will hope for a repeat showing today.
Key Battle
Diarmuid Connolly (Dublin) v Lee Keegan (Mayo)
THIS pair have a bit of previous. Connolly was controversially shown a red card after a tangle with Keegan in the drawn AllIreland semi-final clash between the counties last year, only to have his ban overturned for the replay, which the Dubs won. When Connolly is on form, everything is so much easier for Dublin. When he found some freedom against Kerry last month, he made the Kingdom pay when it mattered. However, as Tyrone’s Sean Cavanagh found to his cost in the last eight, Keegan is a winat-all-costs manmarker. Keep Connolly quiet and Mayo are in with a big shout. An intriguing battle.
Last Championship Meeting
2015 All-Ireland SFC semi-final replay: Dublin 3-15 Mayo 1-14
THREE goals in the final 15 minutes saw Dublin come from behind in thrilling fashion to edge out Mayo and book an All-Ireland final date with Kerry, which they would go on to win. Jim Gavin’s men trailed by four points with 55 minutes on the clock and looked in serious danger of bowing out before an expectant Croke Park. But having been held to a draw the previous week, the All-Ireland champions-elect put the pedal to the metal when it mattered as they saw off Mayo in the closing minutes. Bernard Brogan tied the scores with his 56th-minute goal before a second from corner-back Philly McMahon shortly after. Mayo had no response and Kevin McManamon, sprung from the subs’ bench, grabbed Dublin’s third goal with three minutes remaining to seal the deal.
Paths to the final
Dublin
Leinster SFC quarter-final: Laois 2-10 Dublin 2-21
Leinster SFC semi-final: Dublin 0-21 Meath 0-11
Leinster SFC final: Dublin 2-19 Westmeath 0-10
All-Ireland SFC quarter-final: Dublin 1-15 Donegal 1-10
All-Ireland SFC semi-final: Dublin 0-22 Kerry 2-14
Mayo
Connacht SFC quarter-final: London 0-9 Mayo 2-16
Connacht SFC semi-final: Mayo 0-12 Galway 1-12
All-Ireland SFC Qualifying round 2B: Mayo 2-14 Fermanagh 1-12
All-Ireland SFC Qualifying round 3B: Mayo 2-17 Kildare 0-14
All-Ireland SFC Qualifying round 4B: Mayo 3-15 Westmeath 1-14
All-Ireland SFC quarter-final: Mayo 0-13 Tyrone 0-12
All-Ireland SFC semi-final: Mayo 2-13 Tipperary 0-14
Betting Box
Match betting
Dublin 4/11
Draw 10/1
Mayo 10/3
Handicap beating
Dublin (-3) 10/11
Draw (-3) 10/1
Mayo (+3) 6/5
First goalscorer
Bernard Brogan (Dublin) 13/2;
Cillian O’Connor (Mayo) 8/1;
No goalscorer 7/1
Who's the Ref?
Conor Lane (Cork)
A surprise choice for his first All-Ireland final, Lane has had a busy year. Was the man in the middle for the All-Ireland SFC Club final between Ballyboden and Castlebar, Monaghan and Down’s meeting in the Ulster quarter-final, the Connacht semi-final between Mayo and Galway, the drawn Connacht final between the Tribesmen and Roscommon, and the All-Ireland quarter-final between Galway and Tipperary. Has a reputation for being slightly whistle-happy, so don’t be surprised of tomorrow’s game is a stop-start affair.
Weather watch
WE may have had the last blast of summer sun in the skies during recent days, but it looks likely to be overcast overhead at Croke Park tomorrow afternoon. Cloudy but muggy, with temperatures around 20 degrees and humidity of 83 per cent.
