ALL eyes will be on Lagan Valley come May 6. A year of chaotic DUP shenanigans has put the constituency at the centre of a gripping political soap opera, with more plot twists than a Thomas Hardy novel.
But even though Lagan Valley returned four – yes four! – DUP MLAs little over a decade ago, this election is about more than just Sir Jeffrey Donaldson’s party and its potential fall from grace.
Lagan Valley is in many ways a bellwether for the entire region, or at least the non-nationalist parts, as it will provide a strong illustration of what’s happened in the intra-unionist battleground and whether or not the Alliance surge has been sustained.
It’s also of significance, a lot of it symbolic, for the SDLP.
In 1996’s pre-Good Friday Agreement forum elections, Lagan Valley was an exclusively unionist constituency returning three Ulster Unionists – including a thirty-something Jeffrey Donaldson – and two DUP representatives, one of which was a comparatively youthful Edwin Poots.
In the assembly election two years later, by which time Sir Jeffrey had become the constituency’s UUP MP, a much more diverse group was elected, including the SDLP’s Patricia Lewsley and Alliance’s Seamus Close.
Sinn Féin elbowed out the SDLP in 2007, taking the sole nationalist seat. However, boundary changes in 2010 saw many of the areas from where nationalist parties drew their vote transferred to West Belfast.
Meanwhile, the DUP, which by this time included the double-jobbing Sir Jeffrey, became Lagan Valley’s dominant party, with four MLAs, from six, at its height in 2011’s poll.
Its majority was broken in 2016, with the election of Jenny Palmer, a councillor who had defected from the DUP to the Ulster Unionists amid allegations of bullying.
However, in the snap election of 2017, the UUP dropped back down to one MLA, in the shape of its now deputy leader Robbie Butler, with former publican Pat Catney securing the final seat, against the odds, for the SDLP.
The same election saw the number of seats for each constituency drop to five, which came at the expense of the DUP, whose tally in Lagan Valley was then reduced to two.
There’s much speculation over the transfer-friendly Mr Catney’s ability to hold this seat and arguably that’ll depend on whether Alliance makes a gain.
Trevor Lunn was elected on an Alliance ticket last time around but became an independent mid-mandate and isn’t standing on May 5.
Sorcha Eastwood is the party’s replacement and is as good as a shoo-in, however, Alliance’s second candidate David Honeyford does not share the same profile.
In a seat where political unionism traditionally polls well, it would appear unlikely that that the UUP and DUP would come away with a single seat apiece.
Such a scenario, unthinkable 12 months ago, would spell a disastrous polling day for the DUP, with either its leader or former first minister Paul Givan failing to get elected.
The latter has a strong personal vote in Lagan Valley and cannot be assumed to be an automatic also ran to Sir Jeffrey. It’s fair to speculate that this worse case scenario has indeed crossed the DUP leader’s mind, which may be one of the reasons he’s been in no hurry to resign his Westminster seat.
The Northern Ireland Protocol will undoubtedly be an issue in the election, though prioritising it over the functioning Stormont institutions, as the DUP did, is unlikely to play out as well as the party thinks, especially in Lagan Valley where the stunt's two main protagonists are standing.
The nightmare scenario for Sir Jeffrey would be to leak votes to the TUV (Lorna Smyth) for being too soft on the Irish Sea border, while also losing moderate voters who believe he’s been too preoccupied with the post-Brexit trade arrangements, for which the DUP leader must definitely share some responsibility.
Candidates
Robbie Butler – UUP
Pat Catney – SDLP
Amanda Doherty – People Before Profit
Jeffrey Donaldson – DUP
Sorcha Eastwood – Alliance
Paul Givan – DUP
David Honeyford – Alliance
Gary Hynds – Ind
Simon Lee – Greens
Gary McCleave – Sinn Féin
Lorna Smyth – TUV
Laura Turner – UUP
