SINN Féin might be confident of a strong election showing following the debacle of RHI that led to this unscheduled poll, but in East Antrim it will be a battle to keep their sole seat this side of the Glens.
Assembly size-shrinkage aside, Oliver McMullan endured a tiring 12-count slog last year to keep the coveted single nationalist seat in this staunchly unionist utopia.
Sinn Féin first stole their seat here from the Ulster Unionists back in 2011, after Rodney McCune failed to match veteran UUP colleague Roy Beggs for first preference votes, and instead of the SDLP regaining ground from the halcyon days of 1998 - when Danny O'Connor won a Stormont place - McMullan secured his seat.
Along with Mr McMullan, 11 candidates from the class of 16 are returning to lay claim to five seats, with only the PUP dropping out thanks to a meagre 455 first preferences last May.
But despite public fury at a high, the DUP is still seeking a safe two seats - for Gordon Lyons and David Hilditch - after 2016's impressive haul of 11,701 first choice votes - over 5,000 more than their UUP rivals, led once again by Mr Beggs, who no-doubt predicts a safe return himself after increasing his total last year by over 800 ballots from 2011.
Refraining from standing this year, departing DUP decade-long stalwart Alastair Ross is uncertain to be replaced by another Democratic Unionist Ross, Antrim and Newtownabbey councillor Stephen.
It looks to be a scrap for fifth place between `Nu-Ross' and Mr McMullan, with the DUP hopeful setting the tone for his campaign with a vow to "remove Sinn Féin from the mists of East Antrim".
But if RHI anger wins the day and Mr McMullan fails to mobilise in the picture-postcard Glens villages and hamlets, then the DUP and Sinn Féin could both lose that seat to a hardliner like UKIP's Noel Jordan or the TUV's Ruth Wilson, both of whom made an impact in 2016 with impressive tallies.
Alternatively, the UUP's John Stewart could nab it, after finishing just a handful of votes behind Mr Jordan last year.
Meanwhile, another certain seat should surely belong to Alliance, thanks to Stewart Dickson, who over the course of two elections has claimed almost 10 per cent of first preference votes.
But apart from the big-hitters and the hopefuls snapping at their heels, who else is aiming to make waves?
Well they can splash all they want, but if the SDLP hope to prevent drowning entirely in East Antrim, their candidate Margaret-Anne McKillop - returning for another shot at the assembly – will have to paddle hard against the tide to slow the party’s steady decline in Stormont polls here – from 7.8 per cent first preferences in 2003 to a lacklustre 3.8 per cent in 2016.
With one less seat to vie for, the minnows here will no doubt feel the squeeze.
Candidates
Roy Beggs (UUP)
Ricky Best (Ind)
Stewart Dickson (All)
Danny Donnelly (All)
Alan Dunlop (Con)
David Hilditch (DUP)
Noel Jordan (UKIP)
Gordon Lyons (DUP)
Margaret McKillop (SDLP)
Oliver McMullan (Sinn Féin)
Dawn Patterson Green Party
Stephen Ross DUP
Conor Sheridan (Cross-Community Labour Alternative)
John Stewart (UUP)
Ruth Wilson (TUV)
2016 share of first preference vote:
DUP 36.1%
UUP 20.2%
All 14.6%
Sinn Féin 8.1%
UKIP 6.8%
TUV 5.1%
SDLP 3.8%
Greens 2.1%
CCLA 1.7%
PUP 1.4%
Seats won by party in 2016
DUP 3
UUP 1
All 1
Sinn Féin 1
